FXUS64 KOHX 051641

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1137 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



- Scattered afternoon showers and storms each day. Highest chances

  over the Cumberland Plateau with low chances west of the

  Plateau.



- No severe weather is expected, but a few storms may produce

  gusty winds and heavy downpours.  



- Gradually getting warmer and more humid with heat index values

  climbing over 100 most days this weekend through next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Thursday)

Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



The key messages tell it all with an unremarkable forecast for

typical August weather. 



An upper level low that has been set up for several days over the

eastern part of the state will keep scattered showers and 

isolated storms going today and again Thursday, especially along

and near the Plateau. No severe storms are expected with weak 

lapse rates. Most activity will die off with sunset. Areas of fog 

will form overnight, especially for locations that receive rain. 

Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



The upper low will weaken and get swept away by the weekend. We

will then be within a bridge zone between a strong Bermuda high 

and a strong, hot western ridge. This will keep our temperatures 

seasonably warm - maybe a degree or 2 above normal. This pattern 

will also keep conditions humid with pop-up showers and storms 

each afternoon. For the most part, chances/coverage will continue

to be highest (30 to 60 percent) for the Plateau and generally 

low (20 to 30 percent) for areas west of the Plateau. No severe 

storms are expected, but gusty winds and heavy downpours will 

occur with some storms. Heat risk levels will be in the 2-3 range 

(out of 4) with peak heat index values pushing mostly into the 

100-105 range.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Isolated to scattered showers and storms will bubble up over the

area this afternoon. Brief cig/vsby impacts are expected at CSV 

and SRB, but probs are very low elsewhere. Outside these small showers

and storms, conditions will be VFR with light winds. 



For tonight, mainly VFR, but CSV and SRB will have episodes of fog

and stratus, down to LIFR at times. 



Daytime Thursday will be a repeat with mostly VFR and a low chance

for afternoon showers and storms. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      91  72  92  74 /  20  10  10   0 

Clarksville    91  70  92  73 /  10   0  10  10 

Crossville     84  67  83  67 /  40  30  70  10 

Columbia       90  71  92  73 /  20  10  10   0 

Cookeville     85  69  85  70 /  40  20  40  10 

Jamestown      85  68  84  68 /  40  20  50  10 

Lawrenceburg   88  70  89  71 /  30  10  10  10 

Murfreesboro   91  72  91  73 /  30  10  20  10 

Waverly        90  70  92  73 /  10   0   0  10 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...13

LONG TERM....13

AVIATION.....13