FXUS64 KOHX 051620

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



- Scattered afternoon showers and storms each day. Highest chances

  over the Cumberland Plateau with low chances west of the

  Plateau.



- No severe weather is expected, but a few storms may produce

  gusty winds and heavy downpours.  



- Gradually getting warmer and more humid with heat index values

  climbing over 100 most days this weekend through next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Thursday)

Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



The key messages tell it all with an unremarkable forecast for

typical August weather. 



An upper level low that has been set up for several days over the

eastern part of the state will keep scattered showers and 

isolated storms going today and again Thursday for the Plateau. A

few cells may drift as far west as I-65. No severe storms are

expected with weak lapse rates. Most activity will die off with

sunset. Areas of fog will form overnight, especially for locations

that receive rain. Otherwise, temperatures will be near normal. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Issued at 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



The upper low will weaken and get swept away by the weekend. We

will then be within a bridge zone between a strong Bermuda high 

and a strong, hot western ridge. This will keep our temperatures 

seasonably warm - maybe a degree or 2 above normal. This pattern 

will also keep conditions humid with pop-up showers and storms 

each afternoon. For the most part, chances/coverage will continue

to be highest (30 to 60 percent) for the Plateau and generally 

low (20 to 30 percent) for areas west of the Plateau. No severe 

storms are expected, but gusty winds and heavy downpours will 

occur with some storms. Heat risk levels will be in the 2-3 range 

(out of 4) with peak heat index values pushing mostly into the 

100-105 range.





&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



VFR conditions will prevail for the forecast period. There is a

low chance a shower or storm impacts BNA/MQY during the afternoon

and a medium chance one impacts CSV/SRB. PROB30 was included at

CSV/SRB to account for the higher chances. Winds will be variable

during the day with light winds turning to the south after 06/06z.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      91  72  92  74 /  20  10  10   0 

Clarksville    91  70  92  73 /  10   0  10  10 

Crossville     84  67  83  67 /  40  30  70  10 

Columbia       90  71  92  73 /  20  10  10   0 

Cookeville     85  69  85  70 /  40  20  40  10 

Jamestown      85  68  84  68 /  40  20  50  10 

Lawrenceburg   88  70  89  71 /  30  10  10  10 

Murfreesboro   91  72  91  73 /  30  10  20  10 

Waverly        90  70  92  73 /  10   0   0  10 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...13

LONG TERM....13

AVIATION.....Reagan