FXUS64 KOHX 051137 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 537 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 - Locally dense fog tonight into early morning. - Cooler temperatures this weekend. Overnight lows in the 30s are expected along with freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday nights. - Dry weather persists into next week with a gradual warming. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 A cold front moved through Middle Tennessee today and a secondary front is moving through currently which is advecting drier air into the area. However, boundary layer winds are light and the ground is soaked in most places. With overnight cooling, locally dense fog is forecast into early Thursday morning, especially in more fog-prone valleys. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM and may need to expand westward a few counties south of I-40. The synoptic picture primarily involves a longwave trough encompassing the central and eastern CONUS Thursday. This will coincide with an expansive surface high spilling down through the Mississippi Valley into Friday with a large upper-low moving south from the Great Lakes. These features will bring more notable cold advection into the region with very dry continental air. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 The aforementioned Canadian air mass will overtake the region this weekend with the surface high settling near the Mid Mississippi Valley. We'll be very cool and stable this weekend as a result. Radiational cooling at night will promote our first widespread frost and freeze of the season with lows well into the 30s. Some locations in the Cumberland Valley could reach the upper 20s per latest NBM data. Plan to protect any sensitive vegetation this weekend. Medium-range guidance depicts a fairly complex split flow pattern next week, but nothing in the way of systems aloft or meaningful moisture return across the Mid South. We'll should get a gradual air mass modification into mid-week that will support warming temperatures, though we'll remain rain-free through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Patchy dense fog will continue to impact the area for the next couple of hours, lingering the longest across the Cumberland Plateau. After all TAF sites return to VFR later this morning, expect scattered high clouds and light southwesterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 45 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 70 44 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 65 40 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 70 42 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 66 43 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 66 44 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 70 41 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 70 42 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 69 46 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TNZ005>011- 023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Cahill