FXUS64 KOHX 031625 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Overall quiet weather for the end of the week into the weekend, with warmer temperatures. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. - More rain chances practically every day next week, accumulations look on the lighter side. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Satellite showing largely clear skies across middle Tennessee this morning, with some mid to high level clouds along the TN/AL state line. Sunny skies and warm temperatures will prevail today and Independence Day, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area. Not much going on with high pressure overhead. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with southerly flow into the mid-south. This will lead to triple digit heat indices, though we are expecting them to remain below advisory criteria. The increase in PWATs to around 1.75" also means that an isolated shower cannot be ruled out on the weekend. Chances for showers will increase as we get closer to starting the new work week, with some of our highest chances for rain Sunday night into Monday night. Mid-level troughing will drop south into the week, allowing disturbances to have more of an effect on middle Tennessee through the mid-week period. With further moisture advection into the area and these disturbances traversing across the Ohio Valley, showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely through the remainder of the period. With the usual caveat of precipitation amounts being higher in thunderstorms, daily accumulations look pretty light right now each day in the work week. Total accumulations through Thursday are forecasted to be less than one inch, with a 20 - 40% chance of accumulations greater than 1". As for temperatures, as the ridge weakens, temperatures will return to near normal, which is still in the upper 80s and 90s so the warmth continues. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Patchy fog this morning is resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions across portions of southern and eastern Middle TN, including at KSRB. This will diminish through mid-morning. VFR conditions prevail thereafter with light northerly winds and mostly clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 90 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 85 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 89 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 86 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 85 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 65 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 89 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Clements