FXUS64 KOHX 031131 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 531 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Warming afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. - High chance for rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts will generally range from 0.25"-0.50". - After a quick cooldown Wednesday, a warm and dry trend will begin Thursday, lasting through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 High pressure anchored over eastern Tennessee is resulting in temperatures dropping a bit faster than forecast with most areas across Middle TN already in the upper 20s. Clouds will continue to build in through the overnight, hopefully keeping temperatures from dropping too much further. A shortwave trough will move over the area Tuesday, pushing a weak low pressure system through the area. Rain will move in from the west late Tuesday morning, becoming more widespread through the afternoon. Pockets of heavier rain will be possible mainly east of I-65, but with little to no instability, rain will generally be light to moderate. Expected rainfall amounts range from 0.10"-0.25" across the northwest to 0.25"-0.75" across the east/southeast. A few isolated spots across the Cumberland Plateau could see upwards of 1" of rain by the time the system exits between 10pm-12am. Tonight's run of the HREF continues to highlight a small area down around Van Buren/Grundy counties for the "best" chance of seeing 1" of rain, and those chances remain low, between 10-20%. Wrap-around moisture may result in a few snow showers across the TN/KY border tomorrow night, however no accumulation is expected with this. Winds will be on the breezy tomorrow as the low moves through with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Outside of that and the rain, no hazardous weather is expected. The cold front will knock temperatures back into the 30s for afternoon highs Wednesday with overnight lows in the teens. So be ready to drip those faucets again Wednesday night! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Thursday onward will feature a *mostly* warming trend with continued chilly nights of lows in the 20s. A large ridge setting up over the western US will push higher heights over the southeast, keeping things dry and warmer with afternoon temperatures generally in the 50s through the weekend. Long range models are in good agreement with the center of the ridge pushing over the area by Monday, and if this happens, this would result in temperatures making a run at 60 degrees next week. Still a ways out, so we'll see, but maybe something to look forward to. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Showers and lowering cigs and vis will develop starting mid to late morning and continue through the evening. A cold front will move through the terminals shifting winds from the SSW to the NW/NNW. Showers will end behind the front from west to east starting at CKV around 00z and BNA/MQY between 01-03z. Some light showers may linger until 06z at CSV/SRB. Low CIGs will remain through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 50 31 36 20 / 90 60 10 0 Clarksville 46 27 33 19 / 60 30 0 0 Crossville 47 32 38 16 / 90 90 10 0 Columbia 51 31 38 19 / 100 70 0 0 Cookeville 47 31 36 18 / 90 80 10 0 Jamestown 47 29 35 15 / 90 80 20 0 Lawrenceburg 51 32 38 20 / 100 80 0 0 Murfreesboro 51 32 38 19 / 100 80 10 0 Waverly 47 28 36 18 / 80 30 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&$$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Cravens