FXUS64 KOHX 031114 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 614 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places on Independence Day. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure remains situated from the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley, with drier air bringing quiet weather across Middle TN. PWs are in the 1.0-1.1" range; about half the values from our recent rainy period. Rain-free weather will persist across the area through the short-term period with warm (hot) afternoons. Temperatures will be on the increase by Independence day, with highs in the upper 80s across the Plateau to the mid 90s near Nashville. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Deep-layer ridging will dominate the eastern CONUS this weekend, with moisture increases expected across Middle TN with the return of southerly flow. The combination of heat and increasing humidity will result in an uptick in afternoon indices Saturday and Sunday; from the 90s to the low 100s. An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out on Sunday with PWs rising back into the 1.4-1.5" range. A few low-amplitude disturbances appear to pass north of our region on Monday, with further moisture increases through the area near a diffuse front nearby. This will foster an increasing presence of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through mid next week. Medium-range guidance is suggestive of a decent shortwave moving toward Tennessee on wednesday, so PoPs are medium to high at this time. Increased rain chances and lessening presence of ridging will suppress temperatures to near normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Patchy fog this morning is resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions across portions of southern and eastern Middle TN, including at KSRB. This will diminish through mid-morning. VFR conditions prevail thereafter with light northerly winds and mostly clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 90 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 85 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 86 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 85 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 88 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 90 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 89 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Clements