FXUS64 KOHX 030522 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places on Independence Day. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure remains situated from the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley, with drier air bringing quiet weather across Middle TN. PWs are in the 1.0-1.1" range; about half the values from our recent rainy period. Rain-free weather will persist across the area through the short-term period with warm (hot) afternoons. Temperatures will be on the increase by Independence day, with highs in the upper 80s across the Plateau to the mid 90s near Nashville. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Deep-layer ridging will dominate the eastern CONUS this weekend, with moisture increases expected across Middle TN with the return of southerly flow. The combination of heat and increasing humidity will result in an uptick in afternoon indices Saturday and Sunday; from the 90s to the low 100s. An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out on Sunday with PWs rising back into the 1.4-1.5" range. A few low-amplitude disturbances appear to pass north of our region on Monday, with further moisture increases through the area near a diffuse front nearby. This will foster an increasing presence of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through mid next week. Medium-range guidance is suggestive of a decent shortwave moving toward Tennessee on wednesday, so PoPs are medium to high at this time. Increased rain chances and lessening presence of ridging will suppress temperatures to near normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Surface and upper ridge are situated to the immediate north and west of Middle Tennessee, so we can expect mostly clear skies and light/calm wind thru the TAF period. TAFs are VFR, except for SRB, where low stratus and radiation fog have already shown development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 91 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 90 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 85 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 89 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 86 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 86 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 89 66 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 90 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 89 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Rose