FXUS64 KOHX 030300 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places on Independence Day. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the area next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure remains situated from the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley, with drier air bringing quiet weather across Middle TN. PWs are in the 1.0-1.1" range; about half the values from our recent rainy period. Rain-free weather will persist across the area through the short-term period with warm (hot) afternoons. Temperatures will be on the increase by Independence day, with highs in the upper 80s across the Plateau to the mid 90s near Nashville. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Deep-layer ridging will dominate the eastern CONUS this weekend, with moisture increases expected across Middle TN with the return of southerly flow. The combination of heat and increasing humidity will result in an uptick in afternoon indices Saturday and Sunday; from the 90s to the low 100s. An isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out on Sunday with PWs rising back into the 1.4-1.5" range. A few low-amplitude disturbances appear to pass north of our region on Monday, with further moisture increases through the area near a diffuse front nearby. This will foster an increasing presence of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through mid next week. Medium-range guidance is suggestive of a decent shortwave moving toward Tennessee on wednesday, so PoPs are medium to high at this time. Increased rain chances and lessening presence of ridging will suppress temperatures to near normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the period with light winds favoring a northerly direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 92 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 68 90 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 61 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 67 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 63 86 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 61 86 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 65 89 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 67 89 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Sizemore