FXUS64 KMRX 272307 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 707 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A soggy weather pattern is expected this week, with widespread rain today and scattered showers tonight, and then again early Wednesday into Thursday. Total rainfall this week expected to total to 2-3 inches, isolated amounts up to 4 inches. - Areas prone to mountain wave winds will see breezy conditions today into tonight, with gusts occasionally exceeding 40 mph. Another round of winds is expected on Wednesday as well. - Temperatures will generally trend seasonally cool through the forecast period. However, overcast skies will help keep low temperatures on the mild side through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A negatively tilted upper level shortwave trough continues to advance atop the Tennessee River Valley. As this wave slowly translates eastward, mid-level flow continues to weaken while an H85 LLJ jet remains primarily focused on the eastern side of the Appalachian mountains. The weakening flow has allowed for instantaneous rain rates to fall to 0.50"/hr or less, thus, hydro issues are not of a concern despite the persistent overcast & showery conditions. Additionally, messaging for the mountain winds is still in good shape as SEly low-level winds near 35-40kts will promote gusts encroaching advisory criteria in mountain wave prone location at times. Most recent observations at Cove Mountain and Sterchi Lodge are gusts of 38mph and 39mph, respectively. Will continue to highlight gusty winds in the HWO but hold off on any headlines at gusts should remain largely south of advisory criteria. Showers will gradually depart from southwest to northeast this evening into tomorrow morning. Tuesday PM hours will be dry for most locations, especially central valley locations southward. Far northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia will hold onto low end PoPs(10-25%) but any additional rain will be very light. Overall, primary impacts will be continued overcast conditions and seasonally cool temperatures. A secondary shortwave will amplify troughing and promote the development of an additional system in the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys Wednesday. This system will be slightly more amplified than the current system, with a deep trough axis extending to the Gulf Coast. Because of this, no instability is expected and thunderstorms are not forecast. We will see another day of widespread showers, which should largely be beneficial rainfall once again. One notable difference will be a more expansive area of SEly H85 winds approaching 45kts per latest NAM guidance. As HREF members begin to encroach on this event in temporal scale, they paint some mid 40mph gusts across the mountains and immediate foothills. Latest NBM probabilities of gusts greater than 40mph mountain wave prone areas from 2am Wednesday to 2am Thursday increase to around 30-50%. Thus, another round of gusty mountain winds is expected with the potential of sneaking into wind advisory criteria looking a little bit better with this system. Will begin to include some low-end wording in the HWO. This system and associated precipitation chances will gradually clear our Thursday. Seasonally cool and mostly dry conditions will follow Friday into the weekend as broad troughing remains atop the eastern CONUS. However, low PoP chances are in place at times (10- 25%) as an additional disturbance swinging through the Ohio River Valley could promote the another round of light rain. Still some uncertainty on the timing and exactly how far south precip associated with this feature could extend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 CHA will have IFR conditions likely persisting through the night, as there will be little happening to change the current conditions. Light rain and drizzle will continue much of the night. Improving conditions to MVFR may happen tomorrow morning. TYS and TRI are likely to have prevailing VFR conditions depsite light rain/drizzle due to downslope winds. Confidence of this is higher at TRI and lower at TYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 62 49 55 / 60 10 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 60 49 58 / 80 20 60 90 Oak Ridge, TN 50 60 47 56 / 90 20 70 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 55 44 56 / 80 50 50 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...DGS