FXUS64 KMRX 270611 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 211 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 146 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A soggy weather pattern is expected this week, with widespread rain today and scattered showers tonight, and then again early Wednesday into Thursday. Total rainfall this week expected to total to 2-3 inches, isolated amounts up to 4 inches. - Areas prone to mountain wave winds will see breezy conditions today into tonight, with gusts occasionally exceeding 40 mph. Another round of winds is expected on Wednesday as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Radar depicts rain spreading northwards across Tennessee and western North Carolina early this morning. CAM guidance is in reasonably good agreement this will continue to spread northwards through the morning. Heaviest rain amounts today look to remain south of Interstate 40 and east of Interstate 81, across the southeastern half of our forecast area. Wouldn't rule out a rumble of thunder or two in the same areas as the heavier rains this morning, guidance is showing stronger vertical motions in the ice crystal area of the thermo profiles, again across primarily the southeastern portions of the area. Southern counties may see rain lighten or stop altogether this afternoon as the better dynamics shifts to the northeast. Eventually this shift will move across the whole of the area, as the filling mid level low continues to weaken and move east. Tuesday is the middle ground of the week and the weather setup, as our first system departs (thus ending any lingering rain across northeastern portions of TN into VA) and the second upper level system comes swinging in from the northwest. Likely to be cloudy with midlevel moisture still present, only low rain chances during the daylight hours for any light showery activity. Despite the good dynamics for Wednesday, the true surface fronts will be far to our south, and so it's no surprise that guidance has hardly any CAPE then. Strong divergence will lend itself to additional rain across the whole area on Wednesday. NBM probabilities for an additional inch of rainfall in the second system has risen to 60-70% across much of the area. Total rain this week is then likely to be between 2-3 inches, with isolated locations to 4 inches, significantly erasing the October rain deficits we accumulated leading into this week. Another weak bout of mountain wave winds is possible on Wednesday, with both the Euro and GFS depicting 30 to 35 knots of H85 flow Wednesday afternoon, so may induce wind advisory criteria winds then across the East TN foothills and mountains. Halloween and especially Halloween night still carry very low probabilities for rainfall, as the second upper trough exits to the northeast. Saturday night into Sunday there's fairly high confidence on yet another trough swinging through the Ohio River valley, but guidance across the dynamical and AI models only have light rain amounts associated with it at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Rain is picking up at CHA and will lower vis and cigs to IFR levels overnight. LLWS will also be present there. At TYS and TRI, rain will move in late tonight and tomorrow morning, but downslope winds off the mountains will likely keep cigs at VFR levels. Some pockets of heavier rain may lower vis to MVFR at times. Rain will taper off in the afternoon, but some MVFR to IFR vis/cigs may linger behind it. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 53 62 50 / 90 50 10 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 50 62 51 / 100 80 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 56 50 61 48 / 100 70 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 46 57 45 / 90 100 30 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wellington AVIATION...DGS