FXUS64 KMRX 221842 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 242 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 - A chance of showers late tonight and early Monday morning, mainly north of interstate 40. - Low afternoon relative humidity expected for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. - Mostly dry and near seasonal to above normal temperatures throughout much of the week. Drought conditions likely worsens across southeast Tennessee. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Currently, subsidence from ridging over the region is suppressing convective development over the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Strong upper jet/short-wave over the Ohio valley into the mid-Atlantic states will produce a line of storms that will move southeast toward southwest Virginia by 06-09Z Monday. Due to loss of upper dynamics and limited instability this line will weaken considerably with only scattered showers anticipated. Scattered showers with limited QPF is expected early Monday morning mainly north of interstate 40. Ensemble means are less than one-tenth inch. For the latter half of Monday through Thursday, surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft will be the main weather story. Main concern will be the low afternoon relative humidity in the 20s/30s. Besides some light showers across southeast Tennessee Wednesday, mostly dry conditions with near seasonal to above normal temperatures anticipated. Again, ensemble QPF means are less than one-tenth inch. For Friday, ensemble cluster show a strong jet moving into the Ohio and northern Tennessee valley. The upper level dynamics weaken as the system moves into the region. Also, return moisture from the Gulf is limited due to persistent surface ridging into the Gulf coast states. Scattered showers are expected but mainly north of interstate 40. Surface ridging and dry northwest flow aloft returns for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Increasingly breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. The strongest winds will be at TYS and TRI where frequent gusts over 20 kts are expected. For CHA, these winds will be more southerly and not quite as strong. Overnight, these winds will continue at TYS and TRI with CHA seeing a notable decrease. Because of this trend, LLWS was included as winds a few thousand feet up will reach 40 kts. Remnants from earlier storms will move into northeastern portions of the area in the morning as showers. Most places will stay dry, but MVFR ceilings are forecast at all sites. Winds will also shift to more northerly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 72 45 68 / 10 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 66 41 66 / 20 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 65 41 66 / 30 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 62 35 64 / 60 20 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Monday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...DH