FXUS64 KMRX 121734 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1234 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Light snow accumulations possible mainly in the mountains Saturday night into Sunday. - Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday into Monday. - Warming trend begins Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Tonight into Saturday we will be under the influence of surface high pressure, and high temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for this time of year on Saturday. The brief warmup will quickly be forgotten as a strong cold front surges through our area Saturday night ushering in an arctic air mass for Sunday into Monday. The front will have little moisture to work with, but we will likely see some showers quickly changing over to snow showers and flurries Saturday night as the front moves through, with snow showers and flurries lingering into Sunday especially over the normally favored higher elevation areas as the northwest flow and cold advection continues. Right now, it appears any snow accumulations will be most likely over the higher elevations of the E TN mountains and SW VA as is typical in these scenarios. Current ensemble data suggests a very low chance (around 10-30%) of exceeding one inch of snow even in these favored areas, but think this is underdone at this point and as more hi-res guidance is incorporated these probabilities will likely increase. Even so, any snow accumulations are expected to be light. The bigger story for most folks will be the cold. High temperatures Sunday daytime temperatures will generally be near or below freezing even in valley areas, and the wind will make it feel even colder. Lows Sunday night will be in the single digits and teens, and while it currently appears winds will be on the decline during Sunday night which will suppress what could be even worse wind chills, still wind chill values in the single digits will be common in the valleys with below zero values for the higher mountains at times Sunday night into Monday morning. It is still unclear how much if any of the area will dip into cold weather advisory territory Sunday night into early Monday, but it looks close enough to warrant continued inclusion in the HWO for now. The center of surface high pressure will eventually shift to our east by Tuesday allowing for a gradual warmup to begin, and temperatures will likely be above normal by Thursday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, but moisture will begin to increase later in the week. Models are still in poor agreement on exactly when the next chance for precipitation will arrive, but current ensemble data supports having chances for rain back in the forecast by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 Biggest concern is how much if any fog/low clouds will develop late tonight. Right now the chance for MVFR (or lower) conditions looks higher at TRI and TYS than at CHA, so will keep CHA VFR and include several hours of MVFR conditions at both TYS and TRI late tonight into early Saturday. Winds will generally be light for the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 59 28 35 / 0 0 20 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 33 55 26 32 / 0 0 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 32 53 24 30 / 0 0 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 31 50 24 29 / 0 0 50 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99