FXUS64 KMRX 121501

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

1001 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025



...New UPDATE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1001 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025



- Bitter cold will surge into the area for Sunday into Monday with

  very cold wind chills near 5 below across the higher elevations

  to single digits in the valley.



- Warm up for much of next week to above normal temperatures.

  



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1001 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025



Quick update to allow the winter weather advisory to expire as

scheduled. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1229 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025



Currently bands of mainly light snow is moving northeast across

southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Heaviest band over

southwest Virginia especially Wise and Russell counties. Main

forcing is due to isentropic lift especially in the 700-600mb

level. Through the morning this isentropic lift will continue as

west to southwest winds bring warmer temperatures in the area but

noticed moisture becomes limited by mid to late morning. Also,

temperatures warm at 850mb to above freezing allowing snow to

change over to rain. 



Accumulating snowfall will be over for much of northeast Tennessee

by daybreak and southwest Virginia by mid to late morning. REFS

and HREF show 1 to 2 inches for southwest VA, possibly up to 3

inches across the mountains.



For Saturday, surface ridging over the Tennessee valley. Aloft

another strong upper jet will move across the Ohio valley and

lower Great Lakes. Deepening upper trough over the eastern half of

the nation will bring a strong arctic-like front through the area

in the evening. 



Cold air-mass will surge into the area Saturday night and Sunday.

Northwest flow into the mountains will produce orographic snowfall

but moisture is limited. For the southwest Virginia and northeast

mountains, snowfall of 1 to possibly 2 inches are expected. Main

story will be the cold air mass with 850mb temperatures anomaly

low with readings dropping to -15 to -18 degrees.



For Sunday and Sunday night, brisk northwesterly winds and cold 

airmass will drop wind chills to 5 degrees below zero across the 

higher elevations to single digits in the valley. Cold Weather

Advisory may be needed for the mountains.



For much of next week, upper flow becomes much less amplified with

a more zonal pattern by mid-week. This pattern change will allow

temperatures to modify with above normal readings by Wednesday and

Thursday. Dry conditions are anticipated as well until the latter

half of the week as moisture returns north into the Tennessee

valley. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 632 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025



Snow for the next couple of hours will hug the TN/VA state line

fairly close to TRI. VCSH and possible quick bursts of snow will

be possible this morning. TRI should improve to VFR during the

later morning hours. Elsewhere, SW winds will develop and

potentially gust generally <20 KT at CHA and TYS this afternoon

and early evening. CIG bases will continue to lift and scatter out

with time today. Although will be VFR, TRI may hold onto BKN 

tonight. Otherwise, high pressure east of the mountains will 

provide calm conditions and high clouds, or nearly clear skies 

tonight.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  33  58  28 /   0   0   0  20 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  54  33  55  26 /  10   0   0  20 

Oak Ridge, TN                       53  31  53  25 /  10   0   0  20 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  30  50  23 /  40   0   0  40 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DH

AVIATION...KS