FXUS64 KMRX 091722

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

122 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1010 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025



A cold front has likely made it through the region. Northerly

winds are in place and dew points are falling. Rain chances will

be near zero today. I lowered what little POPs were in the

forecast for this morning. Clouds will be thinning out this

afternoon.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025



Key Message:



1. Other than limited rain chances along the mountains, today and 

tonight will be drier and cooler. 



Today



Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered over the 

eastern Great Lakes with a cold front just north of our area. The 

closed low is expected to drift slightly southward with another 

closed low developing near the ArkLaTex region. At the same time, 

the boundary to our north is expected to gradually drift southward 

through the day. With further reduction in moisture, this will limit 

the chances for rain today, outside of maybe the mountains and 

southern portions of the area. Ultimately, the biggest change in the 

pattern for the day will be a return of cooler temperatures in 

comparison to yesterday. 



Tonight



Overnight, the closed low to our southwest is expected to deepen and 

drift southward towards the northwestern Gulf. By this time, the 

frontal boundary is expected to be to our south with recent CAA and 

drier air promoting notably cooler temperatures overnight, likely 

reaching into the 40s in many locations. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025



Key Messages: 



1. Fairly mild temperatures and limited rain chances are expected 

Saturday and Sunday. 



2. Next week, chances for rain and storms will become more 

widespread with a gradual warming trend. 



Saturday through Monday



At the start of the period, a closed low will be moving along the 

New England Coast with another deepening closed low centered along 

the northern Gulf. The cold front from the short term period will 

have also moved well to our south, becoming nearly stationary in 

conjunction with the closed low. High pressure to the north will 

continue to promote mild conditions for Saturday. Moisture will be 

sufficient for some rain chances in the south, but most places will 

likely remain dry. On Sunday, the closed low will still be nearly 

stationary but will deepen further and allow for increasing 

southerly flow and moisture return. This will lead to an increase in 

temperatures and rain chances spreading further north. Still, these 

chances will be focused more towards southern portions of the area. 



This closed low will deepen further heading into Monday, before it 

slowly progresses to the north. Additional southerly flow will lead 

to further moisture advection, along with height falls across the 

region. During this time, rain chances are a lot more widespread, 

given the pattern. However, instability will still be limited and 

inhibit chances for convection. 



Tuesday through Thursday



By Tuesday, the closed low will be centered near or just west of the 

region. This will continue chances for widespread rainfall similar 

to Monday. Also, the further height falls do look to provide enough 

instability for embedded convection, but the pattern will not 

promote much organization of any storms that develop. By Wednesday, 

the closed low will lift northward with additional troughing 

ejecting out of the Northern Rockies. Continued height rises will 

lead to the start of a warming trend with the region seeing more of 

a summer-like pattern late in the week. Increasing moisture and 

instability will support diurnal convection, especially along the 

mountains.&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 116 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions expected this TAF cycle with decreasing clouds 

this afternoon and increasing mid to high clouds from the south 

tomorrow morning. Light northerly winds will become more easterly 

tomorrow.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  72  56  75 /  10  30  40  40 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  50  72  55  77 /   0  20  30  30 

Oak Ridge, TN                       50  73  54  76 /   0  10  20  20 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              42  73  51  74 /   0  10  20  20 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...BW

LONG TERM....BW

AVIATION...McD