FXUS64 KMRX 091108 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 708 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Key Message: 1. Other than limited rain chances along the mountains, today and tonight will be drier and cooler. Today Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered over the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front just north of our area. The closed low is expected to drift slightly southward with another closed low developing near the ArkLaTex region. At the same time, the boundary to our north is expected to gradually drift southward through the day. With further reduction in moisture, this will limit the chances for rain today, outside of maybe the mountains and southern portions of the area. Ultimately, the biggest change in the pattern for the day will be a return of cooler temperatures in comparison to yesterday. Tonight Overnight, the closed low to our southwest is expected to deepen and drift southward towards the northwestern Gulf. By this time, the frontal boundary is expected to be to our south with recent CAA and drier air promoting notably cooler temperatures overnight, likely reaching into the 40s in many locations. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 238 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Key Messages: 1. Fairly mild temperatures and limited rain chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. 2. Next week, chances for rain and storms will become more widespread with a gradual warming trend. Saturday through Monday At the start of the period, a closed low will be moving along the New England Coast with another deepening closed low centered along the northern Gulf. The cold front from the short term period will have also moved well to our south, becoming nearly stationary in conjunction with the closed low. High pressure to the north will continue to promote mild conditions for Saturday. Moisture will be sufficient for some rain chances in the south, but most places will likely remain dry. On Sunday, the closed low will still be nearly stationary but will deepen further and allow for increasing southerly flow and moisture return. This will lead to an increase in temperatures and rain chances spreading further north. Still, these chances will be focused more towards southern portions of the area. This closed low will deepen further heading into Monday, before it slowly progresses to the north. Additional southerly flow will lead to further moisture advection, along with height falls across the region. During this time, rain chances are a lot more widespread, given the pattern. However, instability will still be limited and inhibit chances for convection. Tuesday through Thursday By Tuesday, the closed low will be centered near or just west of the region. This will continue chances for widespread rainfall similar to Monday. Also, the further height falls do look to provide enough instability for embedded convection, but the pattern will not promote much organization of any storms that develop. By Wednesday, the closed low will lift northward with additional troughing ejecting out of the Northern Rockies. Continued height rises will lead to the start of a warming trend with the region seeing more of a summer-like pattern late in the week. Increasing moisture and instability will support diurnal convection, especially along the mountains. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Morning fog has bottomed out aviation conditions at all of the TAF sites, but these conditions should improve to VFR quickly. Some lower clouds may linger, but minimal ceilings are expected by the afternoon hours. Winds will be generally from the north at around 10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 55 72 56 / 10 10 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 50 72 55 / 10 0 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 75 50 73 54 / 10 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 42 73 51 / 20 0 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....BW AVIATION...BW