FXUS64 KMRX 070521

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

121 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026



- The severe storm threat has ended. 



- Light to moderate rain will continue overnight. Flooding 

  potential if any is low.



- Rain showers will decrease in the morning hours and end 

  completely by mid afternoon.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026



The cold front is currently stalled near the Cumberland Plateau 

at the western edge of our forecast area. Rain showers are still 

developing along, ahead of and behind this boundary. Thunderstorms

and heavy rain have moved out of the region. The highest rainfall

amounts have been south of I-40 with many locations receiving one

to two inches. North of I-40, rain amounts have been much lower 

with most locations receiving less than half an inch. 



Light to moderate rain showers will continue overnight. The highest 

rain amounts are expected over the Southern Tennessee Valley and 

Southwest North Carolina with half an inch to one inch additional 

rainfall expected through the morning hours. The severe storm threat 

has ended. Instability has eroded from multiple rounds of rain. The 

flooding threat peaked in the evening hours and has been declining. 

I can't completely rule out some flooding issues in the southernmost 

counties as repeated showers and storms will continue until the 

front moves through but that area seems to be doing well with the 

rain due to the drought conditions and rain rates haven't been too 

high. The cold front will move through the region by morning. 



Showers will linger this morning as the front is still slow to move 

and will likely be just south of the region. Showers will be light 

and spotty with a much drier air mass moving in with dew points in 

the 50s. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the 

Tennessee Valley kicking the front out of the region. Most of the 

region will be dry through the afternoon hours. High pressure will 

be centered over the region Thursday night. 



Friday night/Saturday morning another shortwave will move through 

the region but rain chances look low. A Gulf Low will bring rain 

chances to the Southeast Saturday/Sunday but the higher rain chances 

will likely stay south of the Tennessee Valley. Sunday and Sunday 

night will bring a better chance for showers and storms as a system 

with good upper level support moves through the region. Otherwise, 

early next week looks mostly dry. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026



Some showers around early with mainly MVFR/IFR conditions, then

will see improvement to VFR during the day. Light winds will 

become north and west around 10kts or less during the day, then 

light again late. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  47  74  52 /  20   0   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  44  72  51 /  40   0   0   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       69  43  72  50 /  10   0   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  40  69  46 /  50   0   0   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...McD

AVIATION...99