FXUS64 KMRX 051829

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

229 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



- Daily chances of showers and storms will continue each day

  through the forecast period, primarily favoring the afternoon

  and evening hours. A low chance for localized flooding exists

  each day.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



The meandering upper low overhead will dissipate and be re-absorbed 

into the mean westerlies over the next two days, but steady moisture 

and August temperatures should allow for convection to fire each 

afternoon, with medium chances for showers and storms in the lower 

elevations. As our upper low feature dissipates to end the week, 

orographic forced storms I think will be more likely than valley 

based convection when we hit the weekend and head into next week. 

Next work week there's still uncertainty regarding strength of flow 

aloft, especially north of our area, but the NBM's low to medium 

chances for PM hours showers and storms looks reasonable, as we wait 

to see where better forcing arrives or if we're left to 

orographically forced storms for a longer period of time.



Otherwise each day should have 1000 to 3000 J CAPE available in the 

relatively moist airmass, and dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s 

should help combine for similar rain rate potential as yesterday. 

Days with lower CAPE may limit the overall risk, but the scattered 

summer convection should lend itself to a lightning and isolated 

flooding risk. A few gusts to 40 or 50 mph too depending on storm 

depth. Steering winds are still generally 10 knots or less over the 

next couple of days, so slow moving storms will have opportunity to 

rack up a quick couple inches of rain. As always with summer 

convection, location location location is everything with how 

impactful a flash flood risk is, so be mindful of local low spots or 

streams that don't need much to cause impacts. Transition to 

orographic induced storms over the weekend may also transition the 

bulk of the risk to the terrain for flooding potential, but any 

decent outflow boundary into the valley could spark new convection, 

as we saw yesterday.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Today, VFR conditions are expected outside of non-zero chance for

thunderstorms this afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will 

be possible near all terminals this afternoon and early evening,

but confidence in direct impact to each site is low so I have

continued the PROB30 group w/TSRA. Any site that does receive rain

will likely see BR/FG development tonight/early Thursday morning 

as light winds turn calm and skies clear out overnight. I have

kept the IFR VSBY at KTRI given the favorable environment, but

left it out at the other two sites given low confidence. Winds 

turn light and variable, primarily out of the south/southwest 

around 5kts Thursday morning.







&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             89  72  88  72 /  50  20  60  20 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  71  87  71 /  50  10  60  10 

Oak Ridge, TN                       87  70  87  70 /  30  10  60  10 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  67  85  67 /  50  10  50  30 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wellington

AVIATION...BPH