FXUS64 KMRX 032301 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 601 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Precipitation chances return this evening, mainly as rain tonight but ending with some light snow Wednesday evening in northern sections and mountains. - Cold frontal passage late Friday, bringing a chance of light snow to higher elevations and a drop in temperatures Friday night/Saturday. - Warming temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 A low pressure system located over the Ozarks today will be tracking east through the evening. Isentropic lift is starting to bring some lower clouds to the area early this afternoon, but precip will start to increase from west to east as QG forcing develops and the surface low tracks into Middle TN. QPF amounts in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are expected, with the bulk of this occurring between 00-06Z. By 12Z the surface low will be east of the Appalachians, but the positively-tilted mid/upper trough axis lags well behind. Lingering low level moisture or light rain will persist through at least Wednesday morning. The 850 mb trough moves through around midday, creating a NW flow that will drop temperatures aloft and change any light precip to snow. Higher elevations may see light accumulations before precip ends with the 500 mb trough passage Wednesday night. Potentially 1-2 inches in the highest peaks of the TN mountains, with a dusting possible in the northern TN Valley and SW VA. We maintain a NW flow pattern through Thursday and Friday, which brings another cold front through the area late Friday. The upper trough/vort max will cross the central Appalachians, with cold temps aloft reaching our northern sections. This may lead to some snow showers in SW VA and NE TN mountains. Limited moisture will keep amounts light and likely not impactful. Warmer temperatures are likely to return next week as a large ridge builds across the eastern Conus. Might even see temperatures above normal again on Monday, which will be a welcome change from the recent cold. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Will see rain early, with some drizzle and/or very light rain around especially TRI and TYS later tonight into Wednesday. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR with low cigs and precipitation/fog, with the highest chance for LIFR (or lower) at TRI. Some improvement late in the period to MVFR looks likely at CHA. A few showers/snow showers will likely be around late in the period at TYS and TRI, with less improvement expected there. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 49 24 45 / 90 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 43 23 38 / 100 40 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 42 20 40 / 90 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 40 20 35 / 90 70 50 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...99