FXUS64 KMRX 031746 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1246 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 - Precipitation chances return this evening, mainly as rain tonight but ending with some light snow Wednesday evening in northern sections and mountains. - Cold frontal passage late Friday, bringing a chance of light snow to higher elevations and a drop in temperatures Friday night/Saturday. - Warming temperatures early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 A low pressure system located over the Ozarks today will be tracking east through the evening. Isentropic lift is starting to bring some lower clouds to the area early this afternoon, but precip will start to increase from west to east as QG forcing develops and the surface low tracks into Middle TN. QPF amounts in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are expected, with the bulk of this occurring between 00-06Z. By 12Z the surface low will be east of the Appalachians, but the positively-tilted mid/upper trough axis lags well behind. Lingering low level moisture or light rain will persist through at least Wednesday morning. The 850 mb trough moves through around midday, creating a NW flow that will drop temperatures aloft and change any light precip to snow. Higher elevations may see light accumulations before precip ends with the 500 mb trough passage Wednesday night. Potentially 1-2 inches in the highest peaks of the TN mountains, with a dusting possible in the northern TN Valley and SW VA. We maintain a NW flow pattern through Thursday and Friday, which brings another cold front through the area late Friday. The upper trough/vort max will cross the central Appalachians, with cold temps aloft reaching our northern sections. This may lead to some snow showers in SW VA and NE TN mountains. Limited moisture will keep amounts light and likely not impactful. Warmer temperatures are likely to return next week as a large ridge builds across the eastern Conus. Might even see temperatures above normal again on Monday, which will be a welcome change from the recent cold. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Increasing clouds at all sites through the rest of the afternoon, falling to MVFR in the 22-00Z time frame as rain spreads across the area. Cigs will drop to IFR later in the night and into Wednesday morning, possibly LIFR at times as low clouds and drizzle linger behind the departing front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 41 49 24 45 / 90 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 38 43 23 38 / 100 40 30 0 Oak Ridge, TN 36 42 20 40 / 90 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 40 20 35 / 90 70 50 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...DGS