FXUS64 KMRX 031732

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Saturday) 

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Key Messages:



1. Dry conditions continue through Saturday.



2. Slightly above normal temperatures but fairly comfortable 

humidity levels.



Discussion:



Independence Day will have nice conditions for outdoor activites and 

celebrations. A mid/upper level ridge will be building across the 

region, with a NE flow through the column. Subsidence under the 

ridge will warm temperatures mainly into the lower 90s for most of 

the TN Valley (possibly mid 90s around CHA, upper 80s in SW VA), but 

humidity levels should be tolerable for this time of year, with 

dewpoints dropping into the 60s in the afternoon. Saturday looks 

much the same. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out completely in 

the TN mountains and SW NC, but forecast soundings appear very 

stable and dry through the midlevels and unfavorable for convective 

development. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through next Thursday) 

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Key Messages:



1. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase each day through the 

first half of next week.



2. Increasing humidity with heat index values approaching 100 near 

Chattanooga.



Discussion:



The upper level ridge shifts east of our area on Sunday, with 

weak troughing near the MS Valley region. Meanwhile, a tropical 

low pressure systyem will be developing off the GA coast. This 

pattern will bring a return of weak southerly flow and increasing 

moisture. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will begin to increase, 

mainly across the mountains on Sunday, and expanding into the TN 

Valley Monday (but still just low/slight chances). With highs in 

the lower to mid 90s and dwepoints in the southern TN Valley 

rising into the lower 70s, some locations near CHA may approach 

100 degree heat index Sunday through Wednesday. 



A weak frontal boundary approaches the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, 

potentially lingering around the area Wednesday and Thursday. The 

Atlantic ridge retrogrades into the Gulf Coast region, with a broad 

trough across the Great Lakes and New England. This pattern, and the 

lingering boundary, should give us better chances for showers and 

thunderstorms by mid week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Fog cannot be 

completely ruled out tonight at TRI, but dewpoints in the low 60s 

this afternoon suggest the chance is very low. 





&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  94  72  94 /   0  10   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  10 

Oak Ridge, TN                       67  93  69  94 /   0   0   0  10 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  89  65  89 /   0   0   0  10 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DGS

LONG TERM....DGS

AVIATION...DGS