FXUS64 KMRX 030500

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

100 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Key Messages:



1. Absolutely beautiful day with sunshine and dry weather.



Discussion:



Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will result in

another absolutely beautiful day across the region. Patchy valley

fog is expected this morning, but this will quickly clear by mid-

morning. Max temperatures will be right around seasonal normals

with less muggy than normal conditions for early July.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday through Thursday)

Issued at 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Key Messages:



1. Dry, pleasant Independence Day.



2. Ridging builds in this weekend with hot temperatures and

increasing moisture. Isolated diurnal convection possible across 

the higher elevations on Saturday, and moreso on Sunday.



3. Diurnal convective trends continue into next week with

increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms by

Tuesday/Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the

region.



Discussion:



High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in an 

absolutely beautiful Independence Day with a clear, sunny sky.

While it will be very nice, it will be important to remember that

heat index values will still be in the mid to upper 90s with a

very high UV index. If spending a lot of time out in the sun,

practice heat safety, stay hydrated, and use sun protection.



This weekend, low-level moisture begins to increase as surface 

high pressure shifts east. Upper-level ridging becomes more 

pronounced across our area which will continue to limit any 

precipitation chances. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will 

become more possible on Saturday and Sunday, mainly across the 

higher elevations during the peak heating hours of the afternoon.



Diurnal summer-time convection continues early next week. A weak

frontal boundary approaches the Tennessee Valley and Southern

Appalachians on Tuesday into Wednesday with increasing chances 

for scattered, mainly diurnal, showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions and light northerly winds will prevail throughout

the forecast period as high pressure remains in control of our

weather.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  70  94  72 /   0   0  10   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  67  92  69 /   0   0  10   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       89  67  92  69 /   0   0  10   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  63  89  65 /   0   0  10   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JB

LONG TERM....JB

AVIATION...JB