FXUS64 KMRX 020510

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

110 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Key Messages:



1. Morning clouds and fog expected. Clearing conditions expected 

today and subsidence and drier air arrives. 



2. Dry across the region with a low chance of showers or isolated

thunderstorms in the vicinity of the mountains and southwest North

Carolina.



Discussion:



The longwave trough axis is located across the region this 

morning and it should move east of the area by 15z. Most 

precipitation is already to our east ahead of the shortwave. Low

clouds and some areas of fog are expected this morning, but this

will be short lived. Subsidence will result in clearing sky 

conditions and dry weather by mid-day through the afternoon. A few

isolated showers or storms are possible in the vicinity of the

mountains and across our far southeastern counties (mainly in

southwest North Carolina) near the frontal boundary, but overall,

we expect to remain dry area-wide today.



Clear conditions are expected tonight with northwest flow aloft

and surface high pressure.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Wednesday)

Issued at 1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Key Messages:



1. Thursday and Friday (Independence Day) are forecast to be

absolutely beautiful with clear sky conditions and no

precipitation.



2. Isolated mountain thunderstorm chances increase this weekend,

but the overall chance of precipitation remains very low (less

than 20 percent).



3. Increasing temperatures and humidity this weekend with heat

index values near 100F across the southern valley near

Chattanooga.



4. Between the influence of an upper-level shortwave to our north

and a tropical low pressure system to our southeast, rain chances

are highly uncertain early next week.



Discussion:



High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in mostly

clear, and absolutely beautiful conditions on Thursday and 

Friday. Independence Day looks to be dry and very nice for 

outdoor plans; however, heat will begin to return with max 

temperatures around 90F and heat index values approaching 100F. 

Just practice heat safety if spending a lot of time outdoors on 

Friday by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the 

shade.



The upper-level ridge shifts over our area this weekend with

surface high pressure moving to our east. This will bring a return

of weak southerly flow and increasing moisture and humidity.

Isolated afternoon thunderstorm chances will begin to increase,

mainly across the mountains.



By early next week, we will be in between two synoptic systems:

troughing across the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley and

a tropical low pressure system near Florida. There is still quite

a lot of uncertainty with the placement of these systems and how

it will impact our weather, but the most likely outcome at this

time is increasing chances of diurnal afternoon thunderstorms each

day across our forecast area.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025



MVFR cigs and vis are expected this morning, mainly at TYS and

TRI. Most precipitation is now to our east and we expect gradually

decreasing precipitation chances early this morning. VFR 

conditions prevail after 15z with clearing sky conditions and 

light northerly winds through the afternoon.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       88  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  63  86  63 /  10   0   0   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...NONE.

VA...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JB

LONG TERM....JB

AVIATION...JB