FXUS64 KMOB 271738 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A much colder airmass moves into the area later this week bringing the coldest air so far this season. - Strong northwest winds over the marine area brings higher seas Wednesday and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Southern stream upper level storm system was positioned across the Mid-MS River Valley with trough axis now over the heart of the forecast area. Water vapor satellite imagery shows deep layer dry air spreading in. At the surface, quasi-stationary front was aligned east to west over the northern Gulf with a wave of frontal low pressure over the northwest FL coastal waters. This feature migrates east southeastward in the near term with a narrow surface high nosing in through Tuesday. Next in a series of strong upper level disturbances dives southeastward out of the southern Plains Tuesday and carves out a large and highly amplified upper trough east of the MS River Valley Thursday. This sends a strong, fast moving cold front through the area Wednesday morning and will be the leading edge of a much much cooler airmass to settle over the area for the latter half of the week. Before that, There looks to be enough moisture convergence along the front to bring a return to rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday AM. With the fast eastward propagation of the front, gridded forecast rain amounts look to mostly be a third of an inch or less. Highs Tuesday range 69 to 74 interior northeast zones and mid/upper 70's elsewhere. Wednesday, highs look to only lift into the lower/mid 60's over the interior and lower to mid 60's area-wide Thursday. A slow moderating trend expected by Friday. Will be back into the 70's for highs by Sunday and Monday. Lows to dip into the 40's for much of the area to close out the week. The coldest night will likely be Thursday and Friday nights with some upper 30's possible inland. The risk of rip currents remains high through this afternoon. /10 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 IFR to spotty LIFR conditions over south central and interior southwest Alabama improves to MVFR/VFR this afternoon, with MVFR/VFR conditions meanwhile over the remainder of the area. Ceilings lower to IFR/LIFR overnight, beginning first over interior areas, then improve to MVFR/VFR Tuesday morning. A predominately northerly flow at 5-10 knots diminishes to 5 knots or less this evening, then a northeast to north flow at 5-10 knots develops Tuesday morning. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Small craft advisories will likely be required by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday AM for strong west to northwest winds and building seas in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage. Due to the northwesterly fetch, highest seas ranging 7 to perhaps 10 feet look to be in the 20 to 60 NM zones for the Wednesday afternoon into Thursday AM period. Mostly 4 to 7 feet out 20 NM. Offshore flow diminishes and seas subside markedly by Friday. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 78 57 75 55 / 0 0 0 70 Pensacola 80 59 74 60 / 10 0 0 40 Destin 81 59 74 60 / 30 0 0 20 Evergreen 76 52 73 51 / 10 0 0 60 Waynesboro 74 54 72 50 / 0 0 0 80 Camden 71 52 69 50 / 10 0 0 70 Crestview 79 53 73 52 / 20 10 0 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$