FXUS64 KMOB 061755

AFDMOB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Mobile AL

1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



 - There is the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy

   rainfall late this afternoon into Thursday.



 - The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a

   Moderate risk of rip currents anticipated from Wednesday night

   through Saturday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



A large positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains to 

4 Corners region takes on a meridional orientation while 

progressing into the eastern states through Thursday. 

Interestingly, this system is now indicated to not absorb a cut- 

off upper low drifting across the Baja region which in turn allows

for the upper trof to be a bit quicker with its eastward 

progression. In response to this pattern, a surface low passes off

to the north and brings a cold front through the forecast area 

late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. In response to a 

series of shortwaves moving across the region and the approaching 

front, convection advances into the forecast area Wednesday 

afternoon mainly across interior southeast Mississippi and 

interior southwest Alabama. One uncertainty with this issuance is 

just how quickly the convection increases across interior portions

of the forecast area Wednesday evening, which could then progress

southward across the remainder of the area more quickly than 

currently forecast, moving offshore Thursday morning. In addition,

the CAMs are indicating rainfall totals of 2-5 inches (with 

locally higher amounts possibly to 8 inches) mainly across 

interior areas through Thursday morning which portends a risk of 

flash flooding. This all depends on how this event will play out, 

so will need to see if continuity develops for this potential 

heavy rainfall. Sufficient CAPE and shear will also be present to 

support strong to potentially severe storm development Wednesday 

night along and west of I-65, and also along/south of the outflow 

boundary/frontal boundary on Thursday.



The frontal boundary is anticipated to return back to near the

coast on Friday, but there's uncertainty with whether or not the 

front lifts off to the north or rather lingers near the coast at 

least through Saturday before dissipating. A series of shortwaves 

meanwhile move across the region and have opted for chance to 

likely pops both days. Another surface low meanwhile develops over

the southern Plains and is expected to lift well off to the 

north, bringing a cold front through the forecast area Sunday 

night. With a series of shortwaves continuing to move across the 

region along with the frontal passage, have gone with likely pops 

for Sunday then chance pops follow for Monday. Dry conditions are 

then expected for Monday night through Wednesday. A low risk of 

rip currents is expected for tonight and Wednesday, then a 

moderate risk follows for Wednesday night through Saturday. A low 

risk of rip currents is anticipated for Sunday. /29



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



MVFR ceilings will prevail this afternoon, with occasional drops

to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities over southeast Mississippi

and southwest Alabama due to scattered light showers. Deeper

convection in the form of scattered thunderstorms are expected

across interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest 

Alabama starting around mid-afternoon, with occasional drops

to LIFR and IFR visibilities due to bouts of heavy rain. These

storms are expected to continue in this same region overnight

before expanding east and south to the coast late tonight through

the remainder of the forecast, with local drops to ceilings and

visibilities along with gusty winds. /22



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 423 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Light onshore flow increases to a light to moderate flow tonight

into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A light to 

moderate offshore flow develops late in the week behind the front,

but quickly shifts to onshore temporarily over the weekend before

a passing system brings back light to moderate offshore flow 

Sunday.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Mobile      83  72  81  63 /  50  50  80  10 

Pensacola   82  73  82  66 /  20  30  70  10 

Destin      80  72  81  66 /  10  30  70  10 

Evergreen   86  68  80  57 /  30  80  80   0 

Waynesboro  83  66  77  57 /  80  90  50   0 

Camden      84  67  76  56 /  60 100  70   0 

Crestview   87  71  84  60 /  10  40  90  10 



&&



.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

FL...None.

MS...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$