FXUS64 KMOB 051922 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through the rest of the week. - Heat indices will trend upward through the end of the week, reaching around 100-107 degrees Thursday through the weekend. - A Moderate risk of rip currents is expected to develop at area beaches Friday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 The closed upper low across the southeast continues to weaken today. Our area is between two upper level highs with one over the Desert Southwest and the other off the coast of the eastern US. This leaves us under very weak upper level flow through most of the week. The generally drier air mass over the area slowly moistens and PWAT values currently around 1.5" climb closer to more normal values of 1.7-1.8" by the end of the week. Shear is very limited and DCAPE approaches 1000-1500 J/kg, so any showers and thunderstorms would be mainly of the pulse variety with the potential for stronger downburst winds. The upper high off the coast of the eastern US begins to build into the Southeast by the end of the week into the weekend. This puts the area on the western periphery of the upper high with generally southerly upper level flow advecting deep moisture through mid next week. PWATs reach to 2" by Sunday with scattered to potentially numerous storms covering most inland areas each afternoon Sunday through next Wednesday. Convection will be over the marine waters with the land breeze in the morning and will transition inland with the sea breeze and along any outflow boundaries in the afternoon. High temperatures generally stay in the low to mid 90s through the period with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s each afternoon. Low temperatures are generally in the low to mid 70s each night with upper 70s along the coast. Peak heat index values will generally range from 100-107 and the daily afternoon rain chances should prevent any Heat Advisory criteria being met. ...BEACH FORECAST... The rip current risk remains low for all area beaches through Thursday before increasing to a moderate risk for Friday and Saturday. Surf heights will remain generally 1-2 feet through the weekend. SS/97 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Afternoon cu with lowest bases generally 3 to 5 kft expected in the near term. There are a few shra/tsra here and there and could see a few storms near MOB/BFM terminals which will mention these in the vicinity generally 19 to 22z time frame. Overall, vfr conditions with light winds. A small chance of am coastal shra/tsra Thu AM. /10 && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Current light southerly to southwesterly winds shift on Thursday to southeasterly to easterly before becoming generally southerly by the beginning of next week. Wind speeds should remain around 5-10 knots with some gusts up to 15 knots Friday and Saturday. Wave heights stay 1-2 feet through the beginning of next week. Friday through mid next week, showers and storms are possible in the morning then shifts inland for the afternoon hours. Higher winds and seas are possible near any thunderstorms. SS/97 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 91 72 91 / 10 30 0 20 Pensacola 77 89 76 90 / 10 30 0 20 Destin 79 88 77 89 / 0 20 20 30 Evergreen 72 92 71 92 / 10 20 10 30 Waynesboro 73 94 73 95 / 0 20 10 10 Camden 73 90 72 91 / 0 20 10 10 Crestview 72 92 71 93 / 10 30 0 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$