FXUS64 KMEG 271714 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Showers will gradually taper off this evening with continued cool temperatures in the lower 60s. - Additional rain chances return Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday as a strong area of low pressure moves through the region. This front will bring cooler and well below normal temperatures to the Mid-South. - There is a moderate chance for the development of frost late Thursday night into Friday morning across areas east of the Mississippi River as temperatures drop into the middle 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A closed upper level low will continue to push into Middle Tennessee today, allowing showers to dissipate through the afternoon. As of 12PM, a few showers remain near the TN River extending south into northeast Mississippi. This activity will exit the Mid-South over the next several hours. On Tuesday, an amplified longwave trough will develop into a closed low over the Central Plains. As this system pushes southeast, surface cyclogenesis will occur just to our west. An occluded front will accompany this low pressure system; which looks to pass just along the TN/KY border Tuesday evening. A tight pressure gradient will exist on Wednesday as this low moves into Middle Tennessee. Gusty conditions are anticipated, with probabilities of reaching Wind Advisory criteria relatively low (15%). In addition, rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and persist through Wednesday. An additional 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is anticipated at this time with conditions drying out on Thursday. Much cooler temperatures will funnel into the Mid-South behind FROPA, allowing lows Thursday through Saturday mornings to drop to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Friday will be the coldest morning as temperatures east of the Mississippi River stay below 40 degrees. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out at this time, so stay tuned for the eventual issuance of a Frost Advisory. A weak, reinforcing front will move through the area on Friday. Additional rainfall is not anticipated with this boundary. The longterm forecast varies slightly in placement of yet another upper level low this upcoming weekend. Rain chances look to increase on Sunday with an eventual FROPA early next week. Stay tuned for more details. ANS && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 IFR CIGs will persist overnight as an upper level low pushes across the Mid-South. Dense fog will be a concern before sunrise Tuesday as winds go calm, so added degraded vsbys in at all sites from 8-12Z. CIGs may improve to low MVFR on Tuesday morning as the aforementioned low pulls east. However, another system approaching from the west may keep things IFR. For now, brought CIGs up to FL010 at 15Z with showers impacting MEM just after 18Z. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Persistent wetting rain chances and MinRH above 50 percent will preclude any fire weather concerns this week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...ANS