FXUS64 KMEG 271140 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 640 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Showers will gradually taper off into Monday with continued cool temperatures in the lower 60s. - Additional rain chances return Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday as a strong area of low pressure moves through the region. This front will bring cooler and well below normal temperatures to the Mid-South. - There is a moderate chance for the development of frost late Thursday night into Friday morning across areas east of the Mississippi River as temperatures drop into the middle 30s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 GOES Water Vapor satellite and 00Z upper-air analysis place an upper-level low over southeast Missouri. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show a majority of the widespread precipitation has tapered to light rain showers and drizzle over the past few hours. Temperatures have remained nearly steady in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees all day due to the persistent cloud cover and precipitation. Rain showers will gradually diminish into Monday as the aforementioned upper-level low moves east into the Tennessee Valley and shortwave ridging builds into the region. However, this period of dry weather will be short-lived. Short-term models indicate an upper-level low will develop over the Northern Plains on Tuesday and drop southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This front is expected to occlude as it drops into the Mid-South. This will result in a return of rain chances across the area for mid-week. 12Z LREF and deterministic models indicate about 100 J/kg MUCAPE will be present for perhaps an isolated elevated thunderstorm at best Tuesday night. A tight pressure gradient will result in elevated and gusty winds at times into Wednesday. Overall probabilities for sustained winds 25 mph or greater are below 20 percent at this time but will be monitored as the next system approaches. A much cooler and drier airmass will filter in for late week with temperatures falling back into the 30s areawide Thursday night. Areas east of the Mississippi River may have the potential for the development of frost as temperatures fall back into the middle 30s, especially towards the Tennessee River. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 IFR and LIFR conditions will prevail throughout much of the TAF period. Scattered -SHRAs will temporarily affect TUP through late morning before tapering off. All other sites will remain mostly dry with less than a 20% chance of a stray shower on site. There is a low probability (less than 20%) of improvement to MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Dense fog will become a concern near the end of the period as winds go calm and CIGs lower back to LIFR. Hi- res guidance depicts a 20 to 40 percent chance of dense fog at all sites. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 A series of upper-level lows and subsequent wetting rain chances will preclude any fire weather concerns with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 60 percent this week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3