FXUS64 KMEG 092341

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

641 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 632 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



- Rain chances will be confined mainly to north Mississippi

  through Saturday with dry weather over the remainder of the Mid-

  South. 

 

- Rain chances spread over the entire area Saturday night through

  Tuesday as an upper low tracks across the area. 



- A significant warming trend will occur by late next week. Our

  first 90 degree day is right around the corner.  



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Thursday)

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Low clouds are slowly lifting and breaking up across the Mid-

South this afternoon. Temps range from the upper 60s under the 

cloud deck centered roughly along I-40 to the mid to upper 70s 

where the sun has broken out. Nothing has developed yet across 

north MS yet but we cannot rule out a shower or two this 

afternoon.



The upper trough that extends from the Mid Atlantic states into 

the Lower MS Valley is in the process of breaking in two pieces. 

The main piece of energy is headed toward the NE Atlantic coast 

with the Lower MS Valley piece cutting off into an upper low. This

upper low will remain stationary over the Lower MS Valley for 

much of the weekend. Showers associated with this system will work

north tonight and Saturday and cover much of north MS by the end 

of the day. Showers will continue to spread north across the 

remainder of the Mid-South as pieces of energy rotate around the 

upper low and eventually the low itself starts moving north Sunday

night into Monday. Rain does not look particularly heavy though 

totals will likely reach 2-3 inches across NE MS by Tuesday 

afternoon as the system will be quite slow moving. No severe 

weather is expected. 



The upper low will exit the region by mid week and upper ridging

will build into the area with unseasonably warm temps and

increasing humidity levels. Many places have a medium chance

(45%-65%) of hitting 90 degrees for the first time this season by

the end of next week. An upper trough moving through the Plains 

at the end of the week could push a front toward the Mid-South 

along with a chance of showers an thunderstorms by Friday into 

next weekend. However, confidence in timing and placement is low 

this far out.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions will prevail through the period at JBR/MEM/MKL. An

upper low will rotate showers and MVFR ceilings into TUP 

overnight. Shower activity will increase around 18Z with IFR

conditions prevailing at TUP. MEM will also be impacted by showers

tomorrow afternoon through the TAF period, though VFR conditions

are expected to prevail. Gusts have dropped out for this evening,

though northeast winds will stay elevated overnight. Northeast

winds will gust up to 25 kts across all terminals shortly after

sunrise tomorrow. 



AEH



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM

AVIATION...AEH