FXUS64 KMEG 091105

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

605 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 558 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



- Rain chances will be confined to north Mississippi Friday and 

  Saturday with dry weather over the remainder of the Mid-South.

 

- Rain chances spread over the entire area Sunday through Tuesday

  next week as an upper low tracks across the area. 



- A significant warming trend will occur by late next week. Our

  first 90 degree day is right around the corner.  



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Today through Thursday)

Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are

in the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Northerly winds 

have kicked up in the past hour to around 8 mph. Fog has 

continued to develop across the region, but remained light. This

trend should continue as surface winds promote low level mixing. 

Any sites where winds stay calm could see periods of moderate to 

dense fog, although the threat should remain isolated at best. 



The weather pattern will remain somewhat nebulous in the short

term, as a trough slowly dives south to the Gulf Coast and cuts 

off over the next 24 hours. Drier air will work its way south

across the region during this timeframe, keeping conditions 

mostly dry in the Mid-South. The exception will be north 

Mississippi, where moisture will linger on the north side of the 

upper low. 



The aforementioned upper low will stall and expand slightly over 

the weekend. Saturday looks mostly dry, with just a few isolated 

showers possible across north Mississippi. Rain chances will 

increase on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. The wettest 

period looks to be Sunday night through Monday night as a surface 

low tracks through. Showers will pull away late Tuesday as the 

upper low lifts northeast of the region. 



A significant warmup is expected by the middle of next week as the

subtropical ridge amplifies and builds in across the Lower

Mississippi Valley. Dry and hot conditions will ensue with the

potential for our first 90 degree day of the year.  



AC3



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Low stratus continues to sink south across the airspace. Much of

the area will remain socked in with IFR/MVFR CIGs to prevail

through the morning. Northeasterly winds will pick up this

afternoon and slowly return conditions to VFR by this evening. 



DNM



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ004>006-

     009-014-016-017-024.



TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ004-021-

     022-052>055-090>092.



&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3

AVIATION...DNM