FXUS64 KMEG 090835

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

335 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 332 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



- Rain chances will be confined to north Mississippi Friday and 

  Saturday with dry weather over the remainder of the Mid-South.

 

- Rain chances spread over the entire area Sunday through Tuesday

  next week as an upper low tracks across the area. 



- A significant warming trend will occur by late next week. Our

  first 90 degree day is right around the corner.  



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Today through Thursday)

Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are

in the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. Northerly winds 

have kicked up in the past hour to around 8 mph. Fog has 

continued to develop across the region, but remained light. This

trend should continue as surface winds promote low level mixing. 

Any sites where winds stay calm could see periods of moderate to 

dense fog, although the threat should remain isolated at best. 



The weather pattern will remain somewhat nebulous in the short

term, as a trough slowly dives south to the Gulf Coast and cuts 

off over the next 24 hours. Drier air will work its way south

across the region during this timeframe, keeping conditions 

mostly dry in the Mid-South. The exception will be north 

Mississippi, where moisture will linger on the north side of the 

upper low. 



The aforementioned upper low will stall and expand slightly over 

the weekend. Saturday looks mostly dry, with just a few isolated 

showers possible across north Mississippi. Rain chances will 

increase on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. The wettest 

period looks to be Sunday night through Monday night as a surface 

low tracks through. Showers will pull away late Tuesday as the 

upper low lifts northeast of the region. 



A significant warmup is expected by the middle of next week as the

subtropical ridge amplifies and builds in across the Lower

Mississippi Valley. Dry and hot conditions will ensue with the

potential for our first 90 degree day of the year.  



AC3



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



An upper low will bring MVFR and intermittent IFR conditions 

across the airspace over the next few hours. Calm winds and

clearing skies has allowed fog to develop along the Tennessee 

River. Fog will spread to MKL/TUP within the coming hours with 

reduced vsbys and potential LIFR conditions. Gusty northeast 

winds, up to 25 kts, will improve ceilings back to VFR and lift 

fog shortly after daybreak tomorrow. Wind gusts are expected to 

drop out after 00Z.



AEH



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3

AVIATION...AEH