FXUS64 KMEG 031900

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

 

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Independence Day. High

  temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s. 



- High temperatures and humidity will increase each day through 

  the weekend. Rain chances will remain low (less than 15%) 

  through the weekend before increasing again next week (30%-40%).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Wednesday)

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Another pleasant day across the Mid-South with some scattered

clouds and temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s. Dew

point temperatures have remained in the upper 60s, which is 

manageable considering it is July. Mostly clear skies will prevail

overnight with light winds, which could lead to some patchy fog 

in low-lying areas. Any fog that develops overnight will quickly 

mix out following sunrise. 



A rather benign pattern is expected to continue through the 

weekend, with upper-level ridging into early next week. For those

with outdoor plans on Independence Day, no significant weather

hazards are expected. High temperatures will be in the low to mid

90s across the area with heat index values approaching 100 by the

afternoon, so some caution is advised if you will be outside for

prolonged periods. Surface winds will begin to shift back to the 

south by Saturday, with increasing moisture to the region. This 

will lead to dew point temperatures returning to the 70s and heat 

index values reaching back into the low 100s. While most of the 

Mid-South will not need any heat products, portions of the 

Mississippi Delta will close in on 105 by Sunday and could need a 

Heat Advisory. Something to watch into later forecast packages.



Upper-level ridging will begin to give way to quasi-zonal flow 

into next week, with a couple of weak shortwaves passing through 

by midweek. As such, precipitation chances will likely begin to 

increase by Monday, with higher chances (50 to 60%) by the middle 

of next week. High temperatures will likely return to near normal 

through this period, with highs generally in the low 90s. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions with northerly winds around 5 kts, becoming light 

and easterly overnight through the end of the current TAF period.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. MinRH

values will remain above 40%, with generally light winds through

the weekend. 



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA

AVIATION...CMA