FXUS64 KMEG 031715

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

 

- Warm and dry for Independence Day. High temperatures in the low

  to middle 90s. 



- Heat and humidity will build each day through the weekend. Rain

  chances will remain low (less than 15%) through the weekend

  before increasing again next week (30%-40%).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Summertime. A persistence forecast is the best forecast model this

time of year. A broad ridge is in place across the western 2/3 of

the CONUS with a weak trough to the east. The ridge will shift 

over the Mississippi River Valley by Independence Day keeping the 

Midsouth dry as temperatures trend warmer. A 592dm ridge and 

surface high pressure will result in high temperatures in the low 

to middle 90s Friday under clear skies. Fortunately, the cold 

front that moved across the Midsouth earlier in the week will 

keep the oppressive humidity at bay for the next 36 hours or so. 

Get out and mow your grass today if you get a chance so you can 

enjoy the festivities Friday evening. 



Weak return flow will begin Friday night as high pressure shifts

over the Ohio Valley. The aforementioned ridge will weaken 

slightly and shift along an axis from west New York into South 

Alabama during the same timeframe. A weak trough will approach 

the middle Mississippi River Valley Sunday which could bing a few 

showers to the Midsouth, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for 

significant rainfall.



Early next week, guidance suggests rain chances will increase a

bit +across the Midsouth (30%-40%) along with slightly cooler 

temperatures. By Tuesday, NBM probability of high temperatures 

above 90 degrees is only 65-75%. Comparatively, those percentages 

are 95-100% over the weekend. Our best shot at widespread rain 

looks to be Tuesday afternoon. 



30/Sirmon



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



VFR conditions with northerly winds around 5 kts, becoming light 

and easterly overnight through the end of the current TAF period.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Minimum

relative humidity values will trend higher each day with light 20

foot winds. Expect high temperatures in the low to middle 90s. No

wetting rain is expected through at least Saturday. 



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS

AVIATION...CMA