FXUS64 KMEG 030435 AAA

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Memphis TN

1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

 

- Noticeably lower humidity will occur through Thursday, with low

  temperatures dropping into the middle 60s to low 70s each 

  morning.

 

- Heat and humidity will continue to build each day through the 

  weekend. Rain chances will remain low (less than 15%) before 

  increasing again next week (30% and above).



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Tuesday)

Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Slightly cooler weather continues behind a cold frontal passage

yesterday. A large CU field is already forming across the region,

but observed and modeled soundings display a strong subsidence

inversion above 850 mb will keep the region dry. Highs are

expected to be in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows around 70. A

surface low could form along the southeastern Atlantic Coastline 

with could throw a backdoor front our direction into this weekend.

However, confidence is still too low regarding the strength of 

any feature to warrant higher PoPs at this time.



Regardless of the development of a coastal low, remaining high

pressure is expected to lead to a gradual increase in temperatures

through next weekend. Highs are anticipated to be in the middle

90s by Friday. As is customary this time of year, moisture will

still be plentiful. Heat indices will therefore begin reaching

back into the low 100s as a consequence through the end of the

period.



By Monday, PWATs begin to increase as high pressure slides east 

of the region. Until this point, entrainment will keep widespread 

diurnal precipitation limited in coverage to non-existent. 

Nonetheless, NBM PoPs respond to this shift in moisture by 

bringing 30% region-wide Monday, increasing each afternoon through

Wednesday. Heat indices could be reduced to below 100 F with 

widespread rain, lending some uncertainty to the accuracy of the 

current heat index forecast. Regardless, a humid, warm, and 

potentially rainy start to next week is expected. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



A persistence aviation forecast, with a continental surface high

pressure over the Midsouth bringing continued light winds. Broken

cirrostratus deck may thin sufficiently for occasional MVFR VIS

near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the next 30

hours.



PWB



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Minimum

relative humidity values will be above 40% with light 20 foot

winds. Highs will remain in the upper 80s and low 90s with no

precipitation expected. 



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB

AVIATION...PWB