FXUS64 KMEG 020422

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

1122 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1119 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



- Isolated thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi

  through mid-evening. Thereafter, rain chances over the Mid-

  South will remain low through the end of the week.

 

- Noticeably lower humidity will occur on Wednesday and Thursday,

  with low temperatures dropping into the upper 60s each morning.

 

- Heat and humidity will creep back up on Independence Day and

  continue to build each day through the weekend. Rain chances

  will remain low (less than 15%). 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through next Monday)

Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Currently....A cold front extends Quebec, Canada southwest 

through Cleveland, Ohio and back into northeast Mississippi. Along

and ahead of this front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are 

are noted on radar over north Mississippi. Storm mode has been 

predominantly single cell with wet microbursts, due to the lack of

appreciable shear aloft. The chance of strong thunderstorms over 

northeast Mississippi this afternoon and evening will remain low 

(<15%), as storm mode will remain largely the same. 



Short term...Today through Independence Day...

The aforementioned cold front will push through the entire Mid-

South by Wednesday morning. Broad surface high pressure will 

build into the region and persist through Saturday. This will 

result in near normal temperatures, noticeably lower humidity, 

and little to no precipitation each day. The Fourth of July 

holiday will feature low to mid 90s and dry conditions across the

entire Mid-South. 



Long term...Saturday through Tuesday...

A dirty 591 dam ridge will build into the region this weekend. 

Temperatures will climb into the mid 90s each day, with mainly 

isolated thunderstorms (<15% coverage) on Saturday and Sunday. 

Several weaknesses will develop in the ridge early next week 

resulting in slightly higher coverage of diurnal convection. 



AC3



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Light winds and VFR to prevail over the Midsouth tonight. Despite

calm winds and clearing skies, drier post-frontal winds of 

10-15KT off the deck should provide sufficient mixing to keep 

dense fog chances below mentionable levels.



PWB



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



No fire weather concerns. Slightly lower humidity will persist

Wednesday and Thursday behind passage of a cold front. Heat and 

humidity will quickly build back in for the Fourth of July and 

persist through at least early next week. 



AC3



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

MO...None.

MS...None.

TN...None.

&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3

AVIATION...PWB