FXUS64 KMAF 270523 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1223 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Breezy winds expected with a strong, but dry cold front moving through late Monday into early Tuesday morning. - 20-50% chance of areas in northern Lea County as well as portions of the northern Permian Basin seeing lows <32F Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 A rather pedestrian forecast is in store for the next couple of days. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough just north of the ArklaTex, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. As the upper ridge over Mexico strengthens, thicknesses will increase through at least Monday afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are on track to recover to 7- 9 F above climatology. Tonight, no LLJ is anticipated, and mostly clear skies will allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling. Overnight minimums should cool into the 50s most locations, or around 6-8 F above normal. Monday still looks to be the warmest day this forecast as westerlies increase in response to leeside troughing on the Front Range, adding a downslope warming component to the mix under mostly sunny skies. Highs will top out in the 80s mostly locations, a blissful ~ 11-13 F above normal. Monday night, lows look very similar to tonight, only maybe a degree warmer due to tomorrow's warmer highs. Unfortunately, chances of precipitation in this pattern are slim-to- none, and grids remain dry. Even more regrettably, cold weather is && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 With a large upper low diving into the Great Plains by midday on Tuesday, a cold front will be pushing across the region. Cold air advects into the region thanks to breezy northerly flow behind the front. Highs struggle to reach the 70s for SE NM and the Permian Basin and this remains through the middle of the week. Overnight lows tumble with Wednesday and Thursday mornings seeing our coldest mornings since Spring. Lows for most settle into the upper 30s to low 40s, but cannot rule out a few areas reaching near or just below freezing. Frost may also be seen. High terrain areas, northern Lea County and into the upper tier of the Permian Basin(Gaines, Dawson, Borden counties) are most likely(20-50% chance) to see lows drop to 32F or lower on those mornings. By Friday, temperatures begin to rebound with highs moving back into the 70s and lows mostly getting back into the 40s. The rest of October and into early November will be dry. Despite the strong cold front pushing through, it will lack a significant source of moisture. A typical, but dry fall continues. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Patchy dense fog is forecast to develop over portions of the northern Permian Basin this morning. While HOB (and to a lesser extent MAF) could experience reductions in visibility, even as low as 1/4 mile, the expected patchiness of the fog precluded mention in those TAFs for now. Amendments will be made if necessary. Whatever fog does form will clear by mid-morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. Light westerly/southwesterly winds expected at all sites through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 86 53 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 86 52 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 92 59 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 89 57 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 76 51 64 37 / 0 0 0 0Hobbs 84 50 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 80 48 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 85 55 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 84 55 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 87 52 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...13