FXUS64 KMAF 092330 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 630 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend. - Well above normal temperatures arrive across the region as we begin a new work week. By Tuesday, widespread highs in the 90s and several locations reaching at least 100 come into the forecast. - The hot temperatures decrease slightly towards the end of next week with a low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms possible by Friday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Showers and a few storms have developed across mainly the Permian Basin this afternoon in response to a shortwave rotating around a stubborn upper trough over LA. Expect brief downpours, but not much else as these quick moving showers dissipate around sunset. Expect a pleasantly cool night once again with lows in the 40s/50s as light north winds continue. Very little changes Saturday as deep northerly flow continues on the backside of the upper trough. This will keep our trend of below normal temperatures with highs near 80. Drier air will filter in for the weekend helping to limit any rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 An upper-level trough hovers over the southern CONUS, with a low centered near Louisiana through the weekend. This keeps our region under relatively cool and dry, northwesterly flow aloft and makes for pleasant conditions. Temperatures Sunday top out anywhere in the upper 70s to upper 80s, then fall to the 50s overnight. Monday, the trough swings northeast and mid-level ridging takes hold of the wheel while another trough in the omega blocking pattern positions itself over the Pacific Northwest. The return of southerly winds and widespread highs in the 90s are on tap Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the hottest days in the forecast, with highs in the 90s and triple digits under sunny to mostly sunny skies. Some spots along the Rio Grande have the potential to reach near 110 degrees. Winds also look to be breezy to windy for many both of these days as strong upper-level winds mix down. Quite a stark contrast to the below normal temperatures and quiet conditions we've seen recently! The second trough in the omega pattern begins to make its approach from the west Wednesday afternoon, resulting in Wednesday being just a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. As the aforementioned upper trough draws nearer, it becomes spit into two separate troughs. One trough produces a surface low off the lee of the Rockies over the Central Plains, then moves northward. The other trough sets up off the coast of SoCal. Overall lowering of geopotential heights and eventually a cold front Friday drops highs back into the upper 80s to mid 90s by the close of the week. Lift provided by the dryline may help trigger some isolated showers/thunderstorms Friday evening, mainly in the eastern fringes of our region. We'll have a better idea on specifics as this system takes shape going forward. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the period. -SHRA in the area will dissipate over the next couple of hours and will not affect air ops. Light northerly winds also continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 52 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 52 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 57 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 53 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 51 71 53 77 / 0 0 0 0Hobbs 49 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 46 71 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 54 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 53 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 53 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...10