FXUS64 KMAF 090625 RRA AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 125 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 120 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - Thunderstorm activity near/south of I-10 clears the area tonight. Additional isolated showers/storms possible late tonight and again tomorrow afternoon (10-30% chance). - Pleasant conditions this weekend before a quick warm-up beginning early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Thunderstorms are currently ongoing for areas roughly along and south of the I-10 corridor. A few of these storms have become marginally severe, and we continue to monitor for flooding in locations where storm training is occurring. A few light showers have even made it as far north as the Midland/Odessa area. This activity is expected to clear out of the region later this evening. However, another pulse in the upper level flow could allow for a couple of showers and weak thunderstorms to develop later tonight in southeast New Mexico and northern portions of the Permian Basin (10- 30%). Additional isolated showers/weak storms may develop tomorrow afternoon as well due to more weak pulses in the flow field, though chances are pretty low at this time (10-20%), and are mainly confined to the Trans-Pecos region and the mountains. Otherwise, pleasant weather conditions persist through the rest of the Short Term period as we remain on the backside of our previous system! Lows Friday and Saturday mornings remain in the 50s and even low 40s for northernmost locations, while highs Friday afternoon top out in the 70s for most (a solid 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year). Enjoy the cooler weather while you can, because a warm-up is on the way later on in the long term. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Northerly/northwesterly flow aloft continues through the weekend, and highs remain in the 70s and low 80s across the region both Saturday and Sunday! However, ridging begins to build back into the area Monday, and winds become more southerly/southwesterly. This will allow temperatures to soar back into the 90s for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Monday afternoon. The heat builds Tuesday, with many locations topping out in the upper 90s and even above 100 degrees (the NBM 50th percentile indicates Midland itself will reach 100 degrees, though deterministic guidance is a bit lower at this time). By Wednesday, a shortwave trough begins to push the ridge off to the east. Though it does not look like this system will bring us any rain (it will be too far to our north), it is going to help at least shave a couple of degrees off of Wednesday and Thursday's high temperatures. Nevertheless, highs in the upper 80s and 90s will still be commonplace by the end of the forecast period. Sprang && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions along with northwesterly to northerly winds prevail through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 76 52 79 50 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 76 53 79 52 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 80 56 82 55 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 53 78 51 / 10 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 70 51 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 73 49 77 48 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 71 46 72 45 / 10 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 76 53 79 51 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 75 52 78 52 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 77 53 80 52 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...11