FXUS64 KMAF 050743

AFDMAF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX

143 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1256 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



- Mild daytime temperatures (60s to 70s F highs) and chilly

  nighttime temperatures (40s to 50s F lows) today and Friday.



- An upper-level system brings low to medium (20-60%) rain chances

  this weekend, with the best chances south of I-10.



- Cool temperatures (50s to 60s F highs) expected this weekend

  before temperatures warm back up early next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Friday afternoon)

Issued at 1256 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Current observations show clear skies and seasonable temperatures

around the area. Satellite shows an upper low near the Four

Corners that will slowly move east into the plains today. This low

will push a cold front through the area leaving high pressure and

cooler, drier air slowly building south tonight. Lows drop into 

the 40s while highs Friday only reach the 60s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 1256 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



A second low quickly replaces the first, dropping to the

AZ/NM/Mexico border Saturday. Models have been trending stronger

and deeper with this low, now showing it cutting off over northern

Mexico and causing good rain chances mainly south of I-20 though

more isolated showers could be seen as far north as Seminole,

Lamesa, and Snyder. The deep low will pull some gulf moisture 

back west, but the moisture is still limited and rainfall amounts

will mostly be less than a quarter of an inch this weekend. 



Models continue to show the upper pattern next week will be zonal

with a split jet, the southern stream oriented over West Texas and

southern New Mexico. This effectively cuts our CWA off from cold

Canadian air but also prevents ridging that would increase temps

much. So the extended temperature forecast is near normal. There

may be another disturbance next week moving through in the

southern jet stream and a few deterministic models are showing

isolated showers associated with it next week. There are not

enough models showing the precip for it to show in the NBM

forecast at this time.



Hennig



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026



VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A weak cold front will

move through the terminals overnight/Thursday morning, with a few

high clouds.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Big Spring               72  45  64  47 /   0   0   0  10 

Carlsbad                 66  44  62  50 /   0   0   0  40 

Dryden                   80  52  69  52 /   0   0   0  10 

Fort Stockton            76  46  67  51 /   0   0   0  20 

Guadalupe Pass           66  44  59  46 /   0   0   0  60 

Hobbs                    66  41  62  46 /   0   0   0  30 

Marfa                    75  44  67  45 /   0   0   0  30 

Midland Intl Airport     71  45  64  49 /   0   0   0  10 

Odessa                   71  45  64  49 /   0   0   0  20 

Wink                     74  44  66  51 /   0   0   0  20 



&&



.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

NM...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...10

LONG TERM....10

AVIATION...99