FXUS64 KMAF 030502 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1202 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Medium to high rain chances (40-70% generally, up to 90% in the Davis Mountains) continue today and tomorrow. Rain chances decrease through the weekend into next week. - Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through the weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The pattern remains largely unchanged through the Short Term Period. The tropical airmass that helped bring West Texas and Southeast New Mexico so much rain over the past couple of days remains in place. The 12Z sounding from MAF continued to show PWATs around the 99th percentile. Much like the last couple of days, showers and some thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon and into the evening. Rain chances continue into tomorrow as well as southeasterly winds continue to bring up rich Gulf moisture to the region. Overall, pretty much everyone has a 40-70% chance of seeing rain over the next couple of days (with the best chances - around 90% - in/near the Davis Mountains due to upslope flow). Though rainfall rates will be light to moderate overall, most locations can still expect to receive another 0.5-1.0 inch of rain (though of course locally higher amounts will occur). Naturally, we will continue to monitor for any localized flash flooding that may occur. Cloud cover and moisture will keep diurnal temperature ranges pretty tight. Expect highs in the upper 70s and low 80s today and tomorrow, along with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Going into the Long Term, a more summer-like pattern begins to develop. Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The long term forecast looks to become drier and warmer through this weekend and into next week. The leftover tropical moisture from what was Tropical Storm Barry will lift to the north and east out of the area by Friday. Into Saturday and Sunday, long range guidance continues to suggest a weak monsoonal ridge developing over the Four Corners and New Mexico. As that ridge develops, highs each day gradually increase to around or just above normal for this time of year. Many locations will reach back into the low to mid 90s areawide. A few spots in the higher terrain reach the low 80s. Low temperatures each morning stay about the same in the upper 60s to low 70s. Rain chances fall significantly across southeast New Mexico and the Permian with isolated to scattered showers still possible across areas south of the I-10 corridor. However, overall rain chances will remain low(10-30%) through the extended. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 MVFR or below CIGs over Upper Trans Pecos from beginning of TAF period into 09Z, with MVFR or lower CIGs elsewhere from start of TAF period. VFR VIS except for MVFR VIS or lower in showers/storms and mist or fog. Expected impacts from storms at terminals are heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. CIGs lift to VFR from MVFR from west to east from 18Z-00Z except for easternmost Permian Basin, where there is medium confidence CIGs remain MVFR or lower. Winds light and below 15 knots for terminals throughout the period outside of storms, with winds veering more to the south 14Z-20Z and remaining southeasterly into end of period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 84 70 91 72 / 60 40 30 10 Carlsbad 81 68 92 69 / 70 30 10 0 Dryden 83 72 91 72 / 70 40 50 10 Fort Stockton 84 7091 71 / 70 20 40 10 Guadalupe Pass 76 65 85 68 / 70 40 10 0 Hobbs 81 68 91 68 / 70 30 10 0 Marfa 78 65 83 63 / 90 40 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 83 71 92 72 / 60 30 20 10 Odessa 82 70 91 72 / 50 20 20 10 Wink 84 70 92 70 / 60 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...94