FXUS64 KLZK 271720 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 -Patchy, dense fog will be possible in localized areas across a large portion of the state this morning. -The next opportunity for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. -Below average temperatures are anticipated through the forecast period due to the combination of wet weather, cloud cover, and the passage of a cold front. -Frost Advisories may be needed for portions of north-central Arkansas on Wednesday morning with a larger portion of northern and central Arkansas which may need Frost Advisories on Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 CURRENTLY: As of 2 AM CDT, local surface observations continue to indicate patchy, dense fog as well as extremely low clouds in many locations across the state. However, this patchy, dense fog is not meeting Dense Fog Advisory criteria of a widespread area of a quarter-mile visibility or less due to fog, therefore no Advisory is in place at this point writing this, but am continuing to monitor the situation closely if visibilities decide to plummet. MONDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Today will be marred by mostly cloud skies, patchy for during the morning hours and a lowered cloud deck across the state. However, the forecast will remain dry from today as the pesky upper lvl closed low which provided unsettled weather over the weekend will move east of the Mid-South region of the CONUS later today. Into Tuesday, a combination of northwesterly flow aloft, a digging upper lvl trof over the Central Plains region of the CONUS coupled with an associated steep cold front will provide the next window of opportunity for rain and a possible isolated thunderstorm across Arkansas. The cold front is progged to move from west to east Arkansas on Tuesday and provide increased POP chances for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest rainfall totals for the event on Tuesday into Wednesday look to be highest across the northern and northeastern part of the state where as much as 0.50 to 1.25 inches of rainfall may fall. A total rainfall from 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch will common across the remainder of the state. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A post-frontal airmass will be present in wake of the FROPA and in the upper lvls over Arkansas will be a persistent northwesterly flow. At the sfc, a high pressure center is progged to move into the Central Plains region of the CONUS contribution to a much cooler and drier airmass overall. Fair weather conditions will be the most noted weather condition over this timeframe with clear skies and plentiful amounts of sunshine. However, temperatures over this period behind the FROPA will be near normal for late October transitioning into early November to a few degrees below normal. Additional analysis suggests that Frost Advisories (temperatures falling between 33 to 36 degrees) may be warranted on Wednesday morning across a few portions of northern-central Arkansas with a greater area extending into central Arkansas possible on Thursday morning. Confidence is low at the moment regarding these temperatures, but a strong signal exists for the possible need of Frost Advisories in the aforementioned areas on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 CIGS are expected remain near IFR to LIFR conditions through the period with rain chances returning to the forecast Tuesday morning and lasting through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 51 64 45 55 / 20 70 80 70Camden AR 53 69 46 58 / 10 80 40 20 Harrison AR 50 60 40 50 / 20 80 60 60 Hot Springs AR 53 66 44 56 / 20 80 40 30 Little Rock AR 54 64 47 55 / 10 70 60 40 Monticello AR 54 71 48 58 / 0 70 60 30 Mount Ida AR 53 67 43 56 / 30 80 30 30 Mountain Home AR 50 62 42 53 / 10 70 70 60 Newport AR 54 64 47 55 / 10 60 80 60 Pine Bluff AR 53 67 46 57 / 10 70 60 40 Russellville AR 53 65 45 56 / 20 70 50 40 Searcy AR 52 64 45 55 / 10 70 70 60 Stuttgart AR 55 66 47 55 / 10 70 70 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...73