FXUS64 KLZK 031138 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Some very spotty pockets of rain were noted over WRN sections early this Thu morning...activity due to a weak upper wave passing over this region of the state. There will remain some potential for this very spotty rain early this morning as the upper wave moves east over the state. SFC high pressure over NRN section of AR early this morning will slide slowly east into this afternoon...with dewpts increasing back into the 70s for many areas. However...some weak energy aloft will move over WRN sections again this Thu afternoon...with some low end POPs noted as a result. This precip and cloud cover will keep temps from warming too far this afternoon...but will still temps a few deg warmer than seen on Wed. The slow warming trend and moisture increase will continue for Fri as well..with some isolated/widely scattered convection for WRN sections again Fri afternoon. Temps/dewpts will combine to see heat index values in the upper 90s to just over 100 today and Fri...but most areas should remain below Heat Adv criteria at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Bimodal upper ridging will be in place across the Srn CONUS to begin the period. At the same time, an upper level short wave trough will be tracking Ewrd across the upper Mid-West, between maxima's in the ridge. By Sunday into Monday, the aforementioned trough will slide Ewrd with NW flow developing across the nations mid-section in its wake. Wrn portion of the ridge will retrograde into the Four Corners region and amplify. This will increase the NWrly component of H500 flow through mid-week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through the weekend. With NW flow setting up over the region next week, this will allow upper level systems to track across the state. Each passing system will introduce increased PoP chances. While the current threat for severe weather looks low, we will have to monitor for the potential of MCS activity, especially on Wednesday. If this were to occur, damaging winds could become an increasing concern. Temperatures through the period will largely be in the 90s, with a slight cool down anticipated by next week in relation to increased PoP chances and increased cloud cover. Even with temperatures cooling down a bit, this will be offset by increasing low level moisture. Combining the expected temperatures and anticipated humidity together, apparent temperatures should climb above 100 degrees Monday through Wednesday, possibly exceeding 105 degrees in some locations. Heat headlines may be needed to account for areas reaching or exceeding 105. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Recent radar trends across SW half of state shows substantial uptick in coverage of SHRA, therefore adjusted terminal forecasts across SW half of AR accordingly. VFR conds were ongoing at all sites except at KBPK where +FG has set in. Today, VFR conds should prevail at all locations with on/off SHRA/isolated TSRA over SW half of AR. Could be some temporary MVFR CIGs within heavier precipitation bands. No SIG weather expected at KHRO and KBPK beyond this morning. Winds today will be light and variable at about 5 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 91 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 91 72 94 72 / 20 10 20 0 Harrison AR 89 68 88 69 / 0 0 20 0 Hot Springs AR 92 73 92 72 / 20 0 20 0 Little Rock AR 92 74 93 74 / 10 0 10 0 Monticello AR 91 73 94 74 / 20 10 10 0 Mount Ida AR 89 71 91 71 / 20 10 30 0 Mountain Home AR 90 69 90 69 / 0 0 10 0 Newport AR 92 73 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 73 92 72 / 20 0 10 0 Russellville AR 92 72 92 72 / 10 0 20 0 Searcy AR 92 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 91 74 92 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...70