FXUS64 KLZK 020524 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 + Much of Arkansas will see a reprieve from the heat through at least through Thursday as cooler air from the north works its way across the state on Tuesday. + Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across central to southeastern Arkansas Tuesday afternoon to evening, with a conditional threat for severe weather, including strong wind gusts and some hail. + Heat and humidity are expected to return by next weekend. Along with heat, more widespread rain chances appear possible, and may offset a more prolific heat threat, but uncertainties remain for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows the cold front currently over far southern Arkansas. Latest run of hi res CAMS shows isolated showers and thunderstorms that would initiate along residual outflow boundaries this afternoon left from convection on Monday afternoon over portions of central Arkansas. The aforementioned CAMs show scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along and north of the boundary over portions of southeast Arkansas. The primary hazard with thunderstorms this afternoon will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. For Wednesday through Friday, upper level ridging will build into Arkansas bringing dry conditions to the area with highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge axis will move across the region sometime Friday into Saturday as temperatures across the state soar into the mid and upper 90s. As the ridge axis moves toward the region Thursday through Saturday, rain chances across the area will remain limited. The hot and humid conditions this weekend into early next week may lead to heat headlines with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range across southern, central, and eastern Arkansas. On Sunday into Monday, a couple weak shortwaves round the periphery of the upper level ridge centered over the Desert southwest. The shortwaves will ride along and south of a weak cold front that will dive out of the northern Plains on Saturday and move to the Ozark Plateau by Sunday. The disturbances will help increase chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conds are expected through the period as high pressure moves towards the region. Mentioned AM FG at KADF due to recent rainfall and T-Td of 0 as of 05z, thus MVFR VIS is possible by morning. Otherwise, winds will be light on Wed with passing high clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 94 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 0 Harrison AR 86 66 89 69 / 0 0 10 0 Hot Springs AR 92 72 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 Little Rock AR 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 Monticello AR 92 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 90 71 91 72 / 0 0 10 0 Mountain Home AR 87 66 90 69 / 0 0 10 0 Newport AR 90 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 91 72 92 72 / 0 0 10 0 Russellville AR 91 71 92 73 / 0 0 10 0 Searcy AR 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...70