FXUS64 KLUB 272325 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions to the region on both Tuesday and Wednesday. - The first freeze of the season is expected across much of the Caprock on Wednesday morning, with sub-freezing lows also likely both on and off the Caprock on Thursday morning. - Warmer weather returns for the end of this week into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Quite a spread in temperatures will exist across the forecast area through the rest of today as dry westerly surface flow has brought clear skies and mild conditions to the Caprock and Rolling Plains, with low cloud cover and cooler temperatures holding strong over the SE TX Panhandle. Tonight, moist easterly surface flow will expand westward with little change in surface airmass likely to bring another round of patchy fog and low clouds mainly to areas along and east of the I-27 corridor overnight. Big changes then arrive during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning as a deepening mid/upper level trough axis over the central and northern Great Plains states helps drive a strong cold front southward through West TX. Current expectation is for the front and its associated northerly wind shift to pass through the entire forecast area a couple of hours before sunrise, with the notably drier post-frontal airmass set to quickly eliminate any lingering low clouds or fog by mid-morning. The other big story for Tuesday will be the continuation of fairly strong north winds throughout much of the day given surface pressure rises of 4-6mb/3-hr behind the front. This will result in sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph across the entire region with some higher gusts near 40 to 45 mph also possible. Otherwise, expect a dry day with much cooler temperatures compared to today with Tuesday afternoon highs only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 The first freeze of the season is expected across most of the Caprock on Wednesday morning with an additional freeze also likely on Thursday morning area-wide as post-frontal cold advection continues through the midweek period. This will largely be due to deep and dry northwesterly flow aloft persisting overhead as a closed midlevel low slowly churns over the TN Valley. Lows on Wednesday morning will likely fall into the mid to upper 20s over the SW TX Panhandle and northern South Plains, with temperatures closer to 30 degrees elsewhere on the Caprock. A Freeze Watch has therefore been issued for the entire Caprock valid late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, with areas off the Caprock expected to remain above freezing on Wednesday morning. The daytime hours on Wednesday are also expected to be relatively chilly with highs only in the 50s to near 60 with a brisk north wind continuing. Another widespread freeze is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with subfreezing temperatures forecast across our entire area, including off the Caprock. The aforementioned upper low over the TN Valley will finally deamplify by Thu-Fri, though broadly cyclonic flow aloft is still progged to persist over most of the eastern half of the CONUS into the upcoming weekend. Some models hint at a couple of weak cold fronts approaching our area late in the week, but at this time consensus favors a return to above normal temperatures each day from Thursday through the weekend with dry weather continuing area- wide. && .AVIATION...(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 For the remainder of the evening, winds may be variable at KLBB and KPVW due to colliding boundaries in the vicinity of the terminals. However, speeds are expected to remain light. Low visbys and CIGS are expected again tonight with greatest chances at KCDS. These lower flight conditions may reach KLBB and KPVW for a very brief period before a strong cold front arrives early Tuesday morning. But confidence is not high enough in this occurring so it has been left out of the TAF at the moment. A strong cold front will then move through all sites before sunrise Tuesday morning bringing a wind shift to the north and sustained 25-30kt winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...01