FXUS64 KLUB 271123 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 623 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM today for much of the South Plains. - A strong cold front will bring well below average temperatures mid-week. - Dry conditions remain expected through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Updated for areas of dense fog over the South Plains. Fog will improve from W-E by mid morning with clearing skies by noon. Quiet conditions will persist for the remainder of the evening with partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. As with previous nights, these winds may lead to areas of fog and/or low stratus overnight across much of the area. Lows will generally range from the mid 40s to near 50. Any fog should burn off my mid Monday morning and weak ridging will continue during the day. Higher heights and surface westerly winds will allow for highs the reach the mid 80s over much of the South Plains, with lower heights and southeasterly winds prevailing over the far SE Panhandle holding temperatures in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A significant pattern change will occur Monday evening into Tuesday as a deep upper trough and surface cold front approaches. Winds will veer from west to north by Tuesday morning and increase through the day peaking sustained near 30 mph with higher gusts. This will drop high temperatures 20-25 degrees from Monday into the upper 50s to mid 60s. However, skies will remain clear with the cool, dry airmass. A deep, closed low will develop by Wednesday morning and track over the Southeast. Widespread below-freezing lows on the Caprock are expected. Winds will diminish and back more to the NW, however given the aforementioned southern progression of the low, the coldest high temperatures of the week will be seen with several areas struggling to get out of the 50s. Very chilly lows will again occur Thursday morning under a surface ridge, potentially falling into the mid 20s over the far SW Panhandle. Highs will somewhat recover Thursday as surface winds switch easterly, however south/west winds will bring them back towards seasonal averages by Friday. Another weak cold front will move through Friday night, but next the weekend looks to be warmer and dry as an upper ridge builds from the west. The precipitation that ECMWF/NAM were indicating on yesterday's model runs for Tuesday morning has shifted eastward closer to the aforementioned low as expected and the latest forecast remains PoP free. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Widespread LIFR ceilings from LBB-PVW with dense fog at times will improve by 15-16Z and return to VFR shortly thereafter on light WSW winds. CDS now looks to stay parked under stratus all day and night, but chances for anything lower than MVFR here are looking slim. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ021-027- 028-033>035-039>042. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93