FXUS64 KLUB 270530

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



 - A strong cold front will bring well below average temperatures 

   mid-week. 



 - Dry conditions remain expected through the week. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Quiet conditions will persist for the remainder of the evening with 

partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. As with previous 

nights, these winds may lead to areas of fog and/or low stratus 

overnight across much of the area. Lows will generally range from 

the mid 40s to near 50. Any fog should burn off my mid Monday 

morning and weak ridging will continue during the day. Higher 

heights and surface westerly winds will allow for highs the reach 

the mid 80s over much of the South Plains, with lower heights and 

southeasterly winds prevailing over the far SE Panhandle holding 

temperatures in the mid 70s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



A significant pattern change will occur Monday evening into Tuesday 

as a deep upper trough and surface cold front approaches. Winds will 

veer from west to north by Tuesday morning and increase through the 

day peaking sustained near 30 mph with higher gusts. This will drop 

high temperatures 20-25 degrees from Monday into the upper 50s to 

mid 60s. However, skies will remain clear with the cool, dry 

airmass. A deep, closed low will develop by Wednesday morning and 

track over the Southeast. Widespread below-freezing lows on the 

Caprock are expected. Winds will diminish and back more to the NW, 

however given the aforementioned southern progression of the low, 

the coldest high temperatures of the week will be seen with several 

areas struggling to get out of the 50s. Very chilly lows will again 

occur Thursday morning under a surface ridge, potentially falling 

into the mid 20s over the far SW Panhandle. Highs will somewhat 

recover Thursday as surface winds switch easterly, however 

south/west winds will bring them back towards seasonal averages by 

Friday. Another weak cold front will move through Friday night, but 

next the weekend looks to be warmer and dry as an upper ridge builds 

from the west. The precipitation that ECMWF/NAM were indicating on 

yesterday's model runs for Tuesday morning has shifted eastward 

closer to the aforementioned low as expected and the latest forecast 

remains PoP free.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Fog and stratus will gradually take hold of all terminals

overnight with widespread IFR-LIFR likely. Still expect this layer

to clear out from W-E by late morning, but likely falling short 

of CDS late in the afternoon as low stratus here will be thicker

and more stubborn. Light winds through the period.



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...19

LONG TERM....19

AVIATION...93