FXUS64 KLUB 091905 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 205 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms ending this evening. - Warmer and dry conditions this weekend through next week. - Shower and thunderstorm potential expected to return next weekend with our next upper level storm system approaching from the west. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 A final bout of showers and thunderstorms was underway this afternoon as an upper vort lobe pinwheeled south on the heels of an upper low over the Arklatex. A mid-level cold pocket with H5 temps around -18C accompanying this impulse should support some small hailers later this afternoon as SBCAPEs grow to around 1000 J/kg. This activity will wane by sunset ahead of another unseasonably cool night under clear skies and surface ridging. Deeper subsidence in northeasterly flow unfolds on Saturday following today's vort lobe, so other than some fair weather cumulus with daytime heating we see no impactful weather. At least highs tomorrow will be milder for a change, but still a good 4-8 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Quiet conditions are expected through most of the long term period, with upper level ridging beginning to move back overhead through the weekend. This should lead to the warming up of temperatures on Sunday back into the upper 70s to low 80s, with temperatures nearly 20 degrees warmer compared to today back in the upper 80s and 90s through next week. By Tuesday, an omega block pattern will set up with an upper level low translating through portions of the Intermountain west, which will allow the upper level ridge to shift east while a lee surface trough digs through portions of the southern Central Plains. This will result in breezy southwesterly winds, primarily across the Caprock, with wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph. Additionally, this will lead to much warmer temperatures with Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the hottest days of the week in the upper 80s to 90s with triple digit heat possible across the southeastern Rolling Plains. Dry and quiet conditions will continue through the end of the work week, however; ensemble guidance hints the end of the dry period by the weekend as an upper level storm system to our west generates chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Given this is beyond day 7 and lots of time for changes in the evolution and timing of this system will go ahead and maintain the NBM slight chance PoPs beginning Friday evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Continued VFR with steady NE winds of 10-15 knots. Spotty SHRA currently developing on the Caprock will move SW and increase in coverage through the afternoon with a few TS possible before ending later this evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...93