FXUS64 KLUB 090505 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1205 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few storms are possible on the Caprock this evening. - Warmer weather returns next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Mild conditions will continue for the next 24 hours over the FA. An upper level low over the Canadian maritimes will drag an attendant positively tilted trough centered over the panhandles east of the FA eventually becoming a cutoff low. Northerly winds will becoming gradually stronger tomorrow afternoon and ushering in slightly drier conditions. Some showers and thunderstorms may linger through late this evening in the southwestern counties. These storms are not expected to be severe. KCL && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon with a quiet pattern supporting the NBM. Models remain on track in ejecting an upper low over the Texas eastward late in the weekend and a ridge expanding eastward over the Plains. Deep northeasterly flow will support one more day of sub-normal temperatures on Saturday before surface flow gains a southerly component on Sunday with a modest in temperatures that day. The sharp increase in temperatures comes Monday into Tuesday as the ridge moves overhead with its associated increase in heights and thicknesses. The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east of the region late Tuesday to be replaced by southwesterly flow aloft as a trough forms over the Great Basin. This will in turn induce strengthening of a lee surface trough across eastern New Mexico, breezy southwest to west low level flow Tuesday and Wednesday, and temperatures climbing well above normal. PoPs look to remain nil despite the southwesterly mid level flow in mid-May as low levels should remain dry and the cap should hold firm through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...51