FXUS64 KLUB 031119

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

619 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



 - Shower and thunderstorms chances and below normal temperatures continue

   through this evening.



 - Near zero precipitation chances Friday however will return Saturday

   afternoon through Sunday evening.

 

 - Warmer and dryer conditions next week. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Rainfall chances, mostly cloudy skies, and below normal temperatures 

continue today. Overall, not much change to the upper level 

patterns. The mid-level trough will persist over our region today 

and an upper-level inverted deamplifying trough over the Desert 

Southwest will track over the region by tonight as a secondary 

trough pushes onshore over the Pacific Northwest. The southwesterly 

flow aloft maintains moisture overhead with PWATs around 1.75 

inches. Southerly surface flow will keep the dewpoints in the upper 

60s to 70s. With the abundance of moisture, shower chances are 

expected to persist through today with the possibility of isolated 

thunderstorms late afternoon through evening once we have reached 

peak heating. Forcing will be weak, therefore any thunderstorms that 

do develop will be sub-severe. By this evening and overnight, shower 

and thunderstorms chances will shift to east of the I-27 corridor. 

Below normal temperatures continue today with highs in the upper 70s 

to lower 80s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Showers should continue through Friday morning and early afternoon 

along and east of the I-27 corridor, but we will finally get a break 

from rainfall by Friday afternoon as subsidence takes over and the 

upper moisture plume should move away from the region. However, the 

break doesn't last long as shower chances return late Saturday 

afternoon as an upper high builds over southern portions of Arizona 

and New Mexico, filling moisture back in over the region. Shower and 

thunderstorm chances should continue through Sunday night. Models 

are in disagreement with the upper pattern following the weekend. 

ECMWF indicates the upper high expands eastward over our region as a 

trough builds off the shore of the Pacific Northwest. GFS indicates 

the high will remain stagnant over the Four Corners region as an 

upper low builds off the shore of northern California. Either set up 

looks to keep near zero pops for the region next week except for 

western portions of the Far Southern Texas Panhandle Monday and 

Tuesday evening. Cooler temperatures in the 70s and 80s will be a 

thing of the past as temperatures gradually warm back into the 90s 

by Friday and continue through next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Occasional rain showers will continue through the rest of today

and likely into early Friday morning at all TAF sites. This will

bring IFR CIGS to the area this morning. CIGS are then expected to

rise to MVFR this afternoon with scattered rain showers

continuing. Isolated thunder will also be possible within the rain

shower activity. Flight conditions may return to IFR early Friday

morning but is uncertain at the moment.



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...10

LONG TERM....10

AVIATION...01