FXUS64 KLUB 030604

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



 - Dry and uneventful weather continues through Sunday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



A cold front was making steady southward progress through the region 

late Monday evening, with a period of stronger post-frontal 

northerly breezes set to continue through the overnight period and 

into Tuesday morning. Winds will weaken quickly during the afternoon 

hours as broad surface ridging builds southward, with light winds 

expected to continue on Tuesday night. Regarding temperatures, even 

with the passage of the cold front, a lack of any particularly cold 

air upstream combined with neutral or even slightly positive 

midlevel height tendencies will result in another mild day with 

highs Tuesday afternoon near or just above 60 degrees. The mild 

theme continues into Tuesday night with highs generally in the low 

30s ahead of the arrival of our next, more potent cold front early 

Wednesday.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



At the beginning of the period, a well-defined Rex Block will remain 

parked over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean and Great Basin, with 

an amplifying, positively-tilted shortwave trough digging into the 

southern Great Plains. The base of this shortwave trough is forecast 

to pivot over W TX, with the corresponding cold front expected to 

move quickly southward across the CWA Wednesday. Brisk winds are 

expected post-FROPA, with northerly winds approaching 20 mph for 

most of the CWA and gusts in the 25-30 mph range. High temperatures 

were cooled slightly from the NBM, as this front will be of polar 

origin, although the cP airmass will be moderating substantially as 

the bulk of the CAA remains east of the CWA, with full insolation 

also expected. Highs will range from the lower-middle 50s across the 

Caprock to the middle 50s in the Rolling Plains, with the coolest 

locales across the northern areas of the Caprock. Winds will taper 

off after sunset, and become light and variable overnight.



Benign and warmer weather is forecast through the end of the week 

and into this weekend due to a negatively-tilted shortwave trough 

over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean impinging on the western 

tranche of the Rex Block. This will cause the Rex Block to collapse 

and transition into a low-amplitude, shortwave ridge by the end of 

the week. The shortwave ridge is forecast to shift eastward into the 

southern Great Plains over the weekend, with temperatures climbing 

between 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms Friday and through the 

weekend. By early next week, there are indications for the decayed 

low previously associated with the Rex Block to reattain DPVA from a 

PV anomaly emanating from the exit-region of the quasi-zonal Pacific 

jet extension. An evolution into a shortwave trough would follow, 

but where the shortwave trough ejects remains uncertain at this 

point in time. The position of the evolving shortwave trough will 

dictate PoPs, in the form of rain showers and even thunderstorms, 

for early next week. Therefore, the low PoPs generated by the NBM 

have been left intact with this prognostication due to the low 

confidence in the synoptic-scale evolution.



Sincavage



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Post-frontal north winds will remain relatively strong overnight 

into early Tuesday morning. Winds will weaken after 18z, then become 

light by Tuesday evening. VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...30LONG TERM....09

AVIATION...30