FXUS64 KLUB 021755

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



 - Shower and thunderstorm chances will persist through tonight

   and into Thursday. 



 - Seasonably mild tonight and cooler than normal highs again on

   Thursday. 



 - Warm and dry during the 4th of July evening.



 - Warmer and drier starting Friday. Only isolated thunderstorm 

   chances into early next week. 





&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



The status quo will largely be maintained over the next 24 hours, 

with cool, mostly cloudy, moist and showery weather continuing. 



Looking at the bigger picture, the mid/upper low making its way into 

California around midday today will open and accelerate into the 

Four Corners on Thursday. Ahead of this deamplifying shortwave, weak 

southerly to southwesterly flow through the depth of the troposphere 

will maintain rich moisture over the region, with PWATs holding in 

the 1.5 to 2 inch range. A weak surface boundary residing to the 

south of the CWA will continue to loose definition as it washes out 

and lifts north, resulting in more uniform southerly winds returning 

to the South Plains region on Thursday. All said, forcing remains 

nebulous, but with the abundant moisture, expect rounds of 

occasional showers to continue the rest of today and tonight and on 

into Thursday. As we warn up just a bit and instability climbs a 

touch, we'll likely see some embedded thunderstorms at times this 

afternoon and evening. 



Overall rain rates with this morning's activity has been on the 

light side, mostly around and under a tenth of an inch an hour. That 

said, a few small heavier cores have generated pockets of rain in 

excess of 1/3" in an hour. We will likely see similar trends this 

afternoon and evening, with localized pockets of moderate to heavy 

rain possible, especially where any thunderstorms develop. Despite 

high confidence in the damp conditions continuing into Thursday, 

details regarding the timing/location of rain at given location 

remain low given the weak forcing. So, off-and-on showers, maybe 

some rumbles of thunder, will be the general rule. The bountiful 

cloud cover and moisture will continue to modulate the temperature, 

meaning another seasonably mild (but very humid) night tonight 

followed by a cool July day on Thursday. Highs tomorrow will only 

reach the upper 70s to lower 80s at most spots. &&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



A building upper high over the 4-Corners region will warm the

atmosphere at the surface and aloft starting Friday into next 

week. Temperatures will warm back to more seasonal levels...near

90s Friday and then lower to mid 90s Saturday through Tuesday. 



Rain chances also decrease with the warmer temperatures alofts.

Isoalted storms will be possible Friday afternoon, but any storms

that form should dissipate by early evening before any fireworks

displays. Those afternoon or early evening storm chances will

remain in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday.





&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Not a great period to fly as abundant moisture lingers in the region 

and provides low clouds and periodic rain at the terminals. All of 

the terminals have experienced showers this morning, and expect the 

off-and-on showers to continue through this afternoon and evening 

and right into Thursday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms could 

also mix in this afternoon and evening, but coverage/location of the 

deeper convection is less certain and will be handled by 

amendments, if needed. Otherwise, low ceilings,ranging from low-

VFR to IFR (or even LIFR) will be possible over the next 24 hours. 

Both PVW and LBB have bounced between VFR and IFR this morning, with 

MVFR most prevalent. Expect MVFR to low-VFR to be the general rule 

on the Caprock the rest of today, degrading to IFR (perhaps LIFR) 

tonight. At CDS, VFR, with a few periods of MVFR are most likely 

today, dropping to at least MVFR late tonight. Expect amendments 

for both convection and ceilings over the next 24 hours.



&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...23

LONG TERM....04

AVIATION...23